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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (3370)	8/31/1998 9:52:00 PM
From: Matthew Wecksell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5676

>if you long - you wrong Nah - I'm 23 and won't be able to touch my IRA investments untill 2034 at the earliest. The people who think being long means six months to a year might have problems, but I'll be that the companies that I've taken a bath on in the past week will recover before I sell them. Heck, I REFUSE to check my portfolio more than once a week, unless CNN is putting the market at the top story. ---matt, hoping to learn something from the sad state of his current portfolio, so that when he has real income comming in he knows what to do with it.

To: bobby beara who wrote (3370)	8/31/1998 10:00:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5676

bobby: A thought! I am beginning to think that the bottom of this leg down may not be index support, but MSFT holding at its 200 day SMA! Just a thought! Regards, LG

To: bobby beara who wrote (3370)	8/31/1998 10:17:00 PM
From: Fortinwit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5676

BB What we have to watch is the $USD... you nailed it there. I actually feel bad for AJC: if she's pulls a Ralph, she'll cause the bottom, which would be very very far below today. But she'd pretty much assure immortality... F.

To: bobby beara who wrote (3370)	8/31/1998 10:26:00 PM
From: tekgk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5676

>> American's have a dismal savings rate. Yep, 0.6% last quarter an annualized basis. That's why I laugh when they ask the man on the street if he/she will sell their 100 shares. Who cares, it's the trillions in foreign investment here (at least 1.2 over the last 4 years), the trillions (1.2-1.5) in Euro dollar deposits, the trillions (at least 2) in yen/dollar carry trades, hundreds of billions in gold carry trades( 8,500 tons), the trillions in bad debt in Asia (1.5-2.5), and the trillions in bad derivative instruments (unknown). Total derivative instruments hit 96 trillion worldwide last year. I believe that the people that created these hedges failed to take the default of the person on the other side of the bet into the fancy mathematical models. The demise of various hedge funds in Eastern Europe is a sign that all is not well in the derivatives game. None of this is a predictor of debacle; it's that watching a few billion in domestic savings is not as important as the trillions in other volatile areas like the ones mentioned above. The one that I worry about the most at the moment is Euro dollars. By law Europe will trade in Euros and most of the oil producers and Asian countries have agreed to accept Euros already. This means that by law, banks and companies in Europe must trade in Euros and they no longer have a need to hold dollars for trade in Europe or with most of the rest of the world. What happens if they dump the excess trillion or so in dollar holdings? Does it start the whole ball rolling? Today could very well turn out to be a correction in a bull market or the start of a bear market - I don't know. I do know that if the dollar gets hammered late this year or early next year it's the start of a decades long debacle for Americans.