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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jach who wrote (16642)	9/1/1998 1:24:00 AM
From: James A. Shankland	Respond to of 77400

what's the difference between a week ago and today to warrant the drop of more than 25%. At 100+ was strong buy and today rush to exit and all got trampled .... In fairness, I wasn't quite sure what propelled the move from the low 80's into the mid-100's. Yes, yes, I know it's a great company, market leader, etc.; but it took about a 30% jump over 3 weeks, starting in mid-June, on little more than a more upbeat public perception. Perception is a fickle thing. Now we're back where we were 10 weeks ago. My guess is, we get a bounce from here, as people slowly realize the sky hasn't quite fallen yet; but that the frothy optimism is gone for a while. That means CSCO is likely to command a lower P/E than before, for a while. The bigger haircuts will go to the stratospheric high flyers like AMZN, YHOO, and AOL, whose combined market valuation may drop to as low as 3.2 times the GDP of France.

To: jach who wrote (16642)	9/1/1998 2:05:00 AM
From: Doug Fowler	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

>>what's the difference between a week ago and today to warrant the drop of more than 25%. At 100+ was strong buy and today rush to exit and all got trampled; again, bear mkt triggers are not there and csco and mkt at these valuation is a gift that happens rarely-<< What's the difference between now and 16 months ago when Cisco was at 30 (split adjusted) ? Not a heck of a lot, except possibly that Cisco's growth rate today is less than it was 16 months ago. Market psychology is the difference. And, let's not forget that even today Cisco is trading at P/E of 40 (based on the most recent quarter's report annualized.) So, Cisco it not really cheap. If you want cheap, look at many of the smaller tech stocks now trading at book value or less. They have been getting killed all year. Cisco has been relatively unscathed so far.