To: JZGalt who wrote (5507 ) 9/2/1998 2:35:00 AM From: Bruce A. Bowman Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 18928
I've been sitting here pondering my navel, not sure what to say, Dave. I agree with you to the extent I understand the issues of the current Japanese/Asian financial crisis and how it affects us, but I must plead guilty of not understanding the issues in depth. My impression is that trading oil related equities forces a person to become very aware of international economic issues and the workings of currency and commodities markets. AIMing HVT for the most part doesn't. So this has been an important learning experience to me and I reluctantly find myself on "input" rather than "output". I've been learning a great deal these last 2 or 3 weeks (including about money management) and thank you and Tom and others for sharing your insight with me. re: bargains... maybe, but other than oil services, I think there's (selectively) more trimming that could be done. Your comment yesterday about the slight of hand tactics accumulating on the books is an important issue. That "funny money" needs to get flushed before we can say that earnings are real and I see that taking a long time. Technically, there's a reasonable certainty that the market will go back and test Monday's low. On that basis I see at the very least another correction of a similar magnitude (though maybe not in so few days) and very possibly breaking down thru yesterday's low. Frankly, where it stopped makes no sense to me, so I don't have much confidence this will hold up as a support level. re: interest rates... the rate inversion has been an issue more than once and continues to recur. Probably related to US insistence on using ST debt issues to finance our LT debt. I sort of recall first seeing it after the US started doing something about the S&L debacle... related? In any case, the Japanese aren't the only ones that need to clean house. And the long bond continues to boom! I didn't see the final numbers today, but all contract periods were green early in the day. Bruce