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Strategies & Market Trends : Bill Fleckenstein, the BEAR! Is he finally right? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill F. who wrote (4)	9/1/1998 2:46:00 PM
From: PnclNk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 259

Bill, Care to give us any insights on the size of this bounce? Bought some gold stocks this morning (I won't complain to you if they stink!). See tomorrow as the end of the bounce? Pencil Neck

To: Bill F. who wrote (4)	9/1/1998 2:56:00 PM
From: Thean	Respond to of 259

Bill, glad you posted your first message today. Quite a few here on SI do see similar light as you and have adopted the strategy of shorting into the strength today. I for one like to use the driller/Oil Services debacle (60%-80% haircut from the top) experience as an example of how bad and how long the downtrend for the bloated stocks can be. What do you think?

To: Bill F. who wrote (4)	9/1/1998 3:51:00 PM
From: WhipsawMcGraw	Respond to of 259

With the short position being the largest in history, does that make you more bearish or less bearish. My fund is predicting Dow 7,000. My stand currently is a short term bear 1-3 years with a sideways boring market coming soon. What do you predict as the lows will be?

To: Bill F. who wrote (4)	9/2/1998 12:42:00 AM
From: AHale	Respond to of 259

Bill, love your market raps. I know you're right on the money. I also agree with your interest in gold and gold stocks. Do you have any opinions on the seriousness of the Y2K problem and its impact on the stock market in late 1999 and early 2000? (I happen to believe that it will be devastating and agree with Ed Yardeni's prediction of a global recession, etc.)

To: Bill F. who wrote (4)	9/2/1998 2:34:00 PM
From: Dr. Jeff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 259

This is a post I sent to LEMMING TV's (CNBC) Ted David at the CNBC board here on SI. -------------------------------------------- <<<To: Ted David (1402 ) From: Dr. Jeff Wednesday, Sep 2 1998 1:43PM ET Reply #1589 Mr. David, Today you had a guest on talking about Asset Allocation. A caller was asking about Northwest Air (worried about the stock in light of the strike). You made a comment about GM holding up during their strike. Strangely, while it's true the alchemists of Wall Street were able to hold up GM's stock price during the strike, it's fallen ever since the strike was settled after being touted (on your program) as a great turnaround play when the strike settled. Well, the stock went from the 70's to the 50's. Also, you today mentioned stock buybacks. For your information, they are ONLY STOCK BUYBACK ANNOUNCEMENTS! You said Boeing was in there buying 15% of their shares back. They only announced PLANS of buying back that many shares. Most buybacks never get completed and are only ANNOUNCED to try to change negative sentiment(mostly a deserved one) about their company's stock. Got to save the value of their stock options. Another observation is the inconsistency of CNBC showing New Highs verses New Lows for the day. As you may know, it's been absolutely atrocious for a long time now. The breadth has actually been positive the last few days, but certainly not what is consistent with what it was during the bull market. How about showing some comparisons to the past? Or is that too BEARISH for your program? The Nazdaq is down over 20%, so it's in a bear NOW. The Dow will confirm the same by Friday when it closes below 7500. Unless Abby Cohen comes out AGAIN screaming about how undervalued our market is. She is so blatantly desperate about getting the Goldman Sucks IPO off the ground, it's not even funny. Please keep her off your show. Ultimately they won't be able to pull off the IPO. No tears shed by me, not even for the lemmings you all are leading off a cliff they don't even see. Hell, maybe none of you see what's really coming. Bummer. >>>

To: Bill F. who wrote (4)	9/3/1998 4:38:00 AM
From: PaperChase	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 259

Bill. Glad to see a thread for you on SI. I've been watching the government intervention (manipulation) in the Hong Kong market. I am considering buying puts to capture further downside in their market when the intervention runs out of steam. However, I'm not sure I can capture enough downside in their market since it has fallen so much this year. Would I be too late to the party? Can anybody help me find the symbol for puts on the Hang Seng Index. Thanks.

To: Bill F. who wrote (4)	9/3/1998 12:40:00 PM
From: Doo	Respond to of 259

Greetings Mr. Fleckenstein. You've been calling for a bear market for "years", as the introduction post by Cousin Bob points out. Yet, "this is the bear market" you've been referring to? With all due respect, it would seem that I could predict (and I will, right here and now) that gold will hit $800 again and, eventually, perhaps years from now, I'll be correct. Actually, that's a tougher call than Bull vs. Bear, don't you think? The latter being a bit like guessing the sex of a fetus or the toss of a coin, 50/50. So, I suppose my question is this. Is there some reason we should all be willing to listen to you predict a bear market during this particular market downturn, as opposed to all those past downturns in "years" past? Thanks for your thoughts, JW.

To: Bill F. who wrote (4)	9/3/1998 7:07:00 PM
From: J. P.	Respond to of 259

When I see you on CNBC as a guest host, I turn it off right away. Sure you may be right this time, but who needs that kind of draining negativity first thing in the morning? Hope this downturn makes you happy!

To: Bill F. who wrote (4)	9/3/1998 7:50:00 PM
From: Tim Luke	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 259

with all do respect Bill we are NOT in a bear market and this correction that we are in will be ending . In my opinion things will turn to the upside about a week after labor day . There is a ton of money waiting on the sidelines that will soon enter the market. Besides where in the hell else in the world can you put your money but in the U.S. stock market? and don't tell me under your mattress. Regards tim luke

To: Bill F. who wrote (4)	9/7/1998 12:01:00 AM
From: edward miller	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 259

Bill, I just read this thread tonight for the first time. Hopefully some rational discourse will eventually appear. In the meantime, welcome to investors amateur hour <g>. More seriously, what I don't understand about the bulls these days is that the greatest overvaluation in history is so obvious and known, yet they keep applying the same "rules of thumb" that worked last year and think they still apply. At SI I read several threads and study the charts at decisionpoint.com, although other sites also offer good information. Some threads are worth reading just to see how messed up people can get by following their favorite guru that has led them all the way through the bull market (100% invested, and they still are). I find my sanity at TSO (Tech Stock Options, which is a misnomer because they don't do tech stock options anymore - it's become a good source for short term general market trading inputs). It is also quite bearish, since July. People, these things don't play out instantly. Patience. Patience. The bear market is an evolving entity. The "Goldilocks" environment has been here for a long time, and not just in stocks. Last year I wrote (not on SI) that I would be looking for a crisis in confidence as one of the keys to the end of the bubble. Look at Clinton now and tell me that he has the confidence of leaders from around the world. Do you really think he can handle a world crisis now? What is going to happen when something goes very wrong - and everything has been so very right for so very long that only a dodo could think it will continue for much longer. I am not predicting the end of the world. However, I suspect that the next few years will be most interesting times, true to the real meaning of the Chinese curse.