Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Bill Fleckenstein, the BEAR! Is he finally right? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill F. who wrote (8)	9/1/1998 7:40:00 PM
From: Serge Collins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 259

This so-called rally we had today is nothing more than a Clinton bounce and a few traders trying to make a quick buck. The fact is this market is headed lower and I agree with Bill when he says Q3 earnings will stop dead in its track any sustained rally. This volatility is a bit reminiscent of September and early October of 1987. If it persists, investors will get confused and battle weary and when that occurs they will throw in the towel. I think we could go under 6,000 on the Dow before too long.

To: Bill F. who wrote (8)	9/2/1998 12:13:00 PM
From: PnclNk	Respond to of 259

Bill, Care to give us some idea of your shorts/puts? We promise not to hold it against you! Just looking for ideas. Pencil Neck

To: Bill F. who wrote (8)	9/2/1998 12:36:00 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 259

Somewhere I read that you were predicting the Fed would lower rates. If you did, why do you think that they would? Minutes from the last few meeting have indicated a tightening bias. What has changed substantially that would sway them -- surely Russia's problems are but a blip compared to the financial meltdowns which have hit SEA. Enjoy reading your columns. regards, Tippet

To: Bill F. who wrote (8)	9/2/1998 1:08:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Respond to of 259

Bill, welcome to SI. It is really great that you can interactively share your ideas with us. -Mohan

To: Bill F. who wrote (8)	9/3/1998 12:55:00 AM
From: Gary Walker	Respond to of 259

Bill's column today supports gold as a hedge against further falls in stocks. Careful...in 1987 gold was hit just as hard as IBM and MA Bell. Don't hold your breath on the gold salvation theory! There are only four places to be....Stocks you intend to take to the grave, short internet stocks, cash, or puts on the major indexes. Personally, I'm 3 of the 4, swore off shorting during the AOL NSCP bubble a few years back. gw

To: Bill F. who wrote (8)	9/3/1998 1:33:00 AM
From: Bald Man from Mars	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 259

I believe the Nasdaq will rally back to the 1750 level, which is a 50% retracement of the fall from 2000 to 1500. It is incredible how much damage the NASDAQ small and mid cap has sustained, if you take out the big 5, CSCO, DELL, INTC, MSFT, WCOM, I have a feeling that most are 60% off their 52 week high ...

To: Bill F. who wrote (8)	9/5/1998 9:53:00 PM
From: SkyDart	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 259

BILL: <<Re: Your Sept 3rd Rap on Hedge Funds covering Oil Shorts>> In your 9/3/98 Market Rap you stated, "These masters {hedge funds} have been short yen and short commodities" and now they have to all unwind at the same time----ie, a short squeeze of sorts in the yen, oil and precious metals due to derivitive covering. However, commodities almost always decline in an environment of deflationary pressures, rescession, rising bond prices, etc. With Russia and Latin America's economies in free fall, and world investors rushing out of equities into US treasuries [The "safest investment in the world"], and the resulting wholesale dumping [selling on the open world market] of oil, gold and other commodities in an attempt to create liquidity in these countries, how long can commodities continue to rise?