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Technology Stocks : SAP A.G. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jay8088 who wrote (2435)	9/2/1998 12:07:00 AM
From: Ibexx	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3424

Jay, Good luck to you whatever you do. Regards, Ibexx

To: Jay8088 who wrote (2435)	9/2/1998 12:21:00 AM
From: Sundar Rajan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3424

I am intrigued by your comments about deflationary economy. How do you think it will affect SAP's pricing structure - note that the market has been willing to pay for high tech solutions labor, software etc even in depressed economies. Isn't this true? this being the case how do u think deflationary pressure will depress stocks?

To: Jay8088 who wrote (2435)	9/2/1998 11:55:00 AM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3424

Jay, I think your post is very well reasoned. Holding stocks with PEs nearing triple digits is rather dangerous even in the best of times. At the present time, with unprecedented deflationary pressures and most areas of the globe in recession or worse, it seems especially reckless to do so. Investors had until very recently espoused a dualistic approach to investments, assuming that the nifty fifty could avoid the massacre that the rest of the market has been experiencing. Perceived "quality stocks" are always the last to crumble. But they do in the end tend to succumb to the same winds that rattle the sails of the smaller boats. They may not capsize, but they are certainly affected by the storm. The strongest, with good balance sheets to protect them, even tend to be strengthened by such events, as they are given the opportunity to plunder the talent and intellectual capital of their less fortunate competitors at fire-sale prices. But it is still far too early in the liquidation cycle for that right now. SAP is a very fine company that dominates the fast growing enterprise software sector. But it will not be immune to the slump as companies are forced to cut back on the growth rate of their IT budgets. SC

To: Jay8088 who wrote (2435)	9/3/1998 1:12:00 AM
From: Bob Duclos	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 3424

If you compare the chart pattern of the Dow Industrial average for this week and last week with the pattern for the week of October 27, 1997 and the preceding week, on a percentage basis (logarithmic chart), the resemblance is striking (so far). In October the last three days of the preceding week saw a 4.3% decline, versus 6.4% this past week; the Oct. Monday drop was 7.2% versus 6.4% this last Monday, followed by a 4.7% recovery on Tuesday last October versus 3.8% yesterday. The next two days in October saw a 1.6% decline, but after a few weeks the market was back to normal for the large cap stocks, as though nothing had happened. The comparison is not quite as favorable when using the S&P500 index (more decline and less recovery this time).

To: Jay8088 who wrote (2435)	9/3/1998 1:27:00 AM
From: Bob Duclos	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3424

(continuing:) Now I am not a technical analysis type, but I do use charts for perspective, to see the larger picture, and for comparisons. There does seem to be a strong similarity between now and last October, both apparently being triggered by third world events. Nevertheless there may be reason to be cautious about SAP, as being German it may be more exposed to events in eastern Europe, or at least may be so perceived by the American investing public.