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Politics : Bill Clinton Scandal - SANITY CHECK -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pezz who wrote (1410)	9/1/1998 11:32:00 PM
From: LesX	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 67261

pezz, When I was in college I had the immense fortune to attend a lecture by Dr. Henry Kissinger. He said many profound things but one that stuck in my mind was in reference to my future upon graduation. He said: "There are things out there in the world that may short circuit your plans". He was referring to the immense nuclear arsenals of the world. At the time it was very sobering and I didn't care to hear it because he only validated my awareness of nuclear annihilation. Speaking such words to 22 year olds was both unfair AND necessary. Unfair because we were so young and our future so bright. Necessary because we were so young and our future so bright. With Russia's decaying economy and limited exportable products she has little more to offer our world AND her people than the leverage of the nuclear genie. With rising nationalism and the threat of a rising demagogic right wing it is IMPERATIVE that we help Russia continue on its venture into capitalism. Would it not be worth $1000 per capita as insurance against not seeing your family fry? That's about $250B of money and brains. (BTW: I am not advocating extortion on Russia's part). As negative as the media is on his Russian visit, I applaud Clinton for at least making an attempt to continue the dialogue with this country so important to mankind's survival. The cold war is NOT over, its just hibernating. While its sleeping we need to kill it - once and for all. LesX

To: pezz who wrote (1410)	9/2/1998 6:02:00 AM
From: Zoltan!	Respond to of 67261

Review & Outlook The Moscow Wake Most observers have concluded that today's meeting in Moscow of two crippled leaders, Boris Yeltsin and Bill Clinton, will produce little of substance. All we can do is hope that this is true, at least in terms of any attempt by Mr. Clinton to solve Mr. Yeltsin's financial problems. Russia already has squandered vast amounts of Western money. The new message should be: You're on your own. There may also be some arms control talk, but Russia's lower house, the Duma, is in an even more sour mood now than when it rejected earlier pleas to approve the START II agreement to reduce nuclear missile deployments. Just yesterday, it overwhelmingly rejected Mr. Yeltsin's decision to bring back Viktor Chernomyrdin as Prime Minister. Though not the final word, it was an emphatic message that even the non-Communists in the Duma are after Mr. Yeltsin's scalp. This is all the more incentive for the Russian President to seek more Western support for his country's crashing economy. He may complain that Mr. Clinton and the International Monetary Fund have become picky just when Russia has hit a rocky patch, with debts coming due and revenues from oil exports sinking. He might reinforce his point by saying that Russian politicians are becoming more nationalistic. He might even drop a reminder that Russia, for all its troubles, remains a nuclear power. But giving aid to Russia, we should know by now, is no different from supporting the habit of a junkie. Nobody outside the Russian oligarchy believes that falling oil prices and "irrational" investors are the real problem there. The failure of Russia to reform its feudal economic system and create a proper rule of law produced today's financial chaos and has even put Russia's democratic achievements in jeopardy. Yet despite that, Russia's "bankrupt" government continues to funnel billions of dollars into new weapons systems, pleading that selling weapons to Iran and the like is vital to its need for foreign exchange. Mr. Clinton might ask the Russian leader how he can plead destitution while keeping his weapons-makers fattened. The best advice Mr. Clinton could offer Boris Yeltsin is to suggest he spend some time with another visitor. Former Argentine Economy Minister Domingo Cavallo is reportedly on his way to Moscow, on the invitation of acting Prime Minister Chernomyrdin. Russia's economic stew is baffling to even the most veteran emerging market watchers, but Mr. Cavallo at least has some relevant experience. He pioneered peso convertibility in hyper-inflationary Argentina, paving the way for a one-to-one rate with the dollar, maintained by a currency board. Russia could use some of the same medicine, starting with making the U.S. dollar, already widely used, legal tender in Russia. We hasten to add that officially dollarizing Russia, and even introducing a currency board, would be but a first step toward cleaning up the colossal mess that is Russia's economy. Corruption and bribery, asset stripping and capital flight are just some of the problems that will continue to keep Russia starved for liquidity. Stabilizing the ruble, whatever the means, cannot take the place of reforming the tax system and land code, and enforcing bankruptcies and shareholder rights. But such reforms are resisted by the oligarchs who have played such a powerful role in backing Mr. Yeltsin and Mr. Chernomyrdin. They have profited from the tilted playing field Russia has created. The ideas emanating from the Chernomyrdin camp are hardly encouraging. There's been a push for the Central Bank to print money to pay wage arrears, recapitalize the banks of the oligarchs and pretend to make good on defaulted debts. Seizing privatized assets is another bright idea that's been floated. The only reformer who appears to have remained in favor--tax czar Boris Fyodorov--likely will be vastly outnumbered in a Chernomyrdin government populated by those opposed to real reform. The sad fact is that Mr. Clinton is meeting a Russian President at the end of his political (and perhaps physical) tether. The American President himself is little better off politically. The best the U.S. can do is pledge support for a Russia that first learns to help itself. interactive2.wsj.com