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Strategies & Market Trends : The Art of Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (36)	9/3/1998 9:28:00 AM
From: GROUND ZERO™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10659

Sun, Nice post and nice thread, thanks for the invitation. I agree that recession is an excess of inventory and a depression is an excess of capacity to produce that inventory. I'm waiting for a major low in late October when the 9 month cycle low and 4 year cycle low are both due to occur. Surely, the market is anticipating a recessionary slowdown of profits. But, I suspect that this slowdown may last for no more than two or three quarters. By then, the market would likely be well off these forthcoming lows. Continued lower interest rates will fuel the market's upward move. Global economies may be having some problems, but it ain't the end of the world. Deals will be made, policies will be modified, and economic order will be restored. Why do I think so? Simple. Because the alternative is civil unrest and upheaval, especially in Russia where the Russian soldier has not been paid in more than five months and political tempers are already getting worn. Another Russian revolution is the alternative. I agree that fear drives markets down. Fear is also an early indicator of a bottom. I'll keep my powder dry until late October and review the situation then. Best Regards, GZ

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (36)	9/3/1998 1:15:00 PM
From: George Castilarin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10659

Very interesting thread. Personally my investing concentrates on highly volatile resource stocks on the canadian exchanges, where an ear to the ground any a feel for where commodities are going is crucial. What effect do you think this volatility in stocks, or the onset of recession will have on the price of gold and other commodities, if any? I believe gold will experience a significant run sometime before the end of the year as uncertainty takes a stronger hold, and base metals will stumble. Regards,