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Technology Stocks : PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mauser96 who wrote (2071)	9/2/1998 9:46:00 PM
From: Rick	Respond to of 4509

Put me down for speculating that the conference call will be positive. I agree with Melissa's analysis about this. Additionally, remember that PeopleSoft was up 7/8 on the Monday debacle. Add to that up 4 or so yesterday on 13 million shares. Granted, there was a pullback today, but it was partial and on much lower volume at 6 million. I follow alot of stocks daily, and on Monday I had 2 stocks in the green, PSFT up 7/8 and OXHP up marginally. The market sends signals and I think Monday was a clear signal of positive news. Regarding PeopleSoft's business, let's keep things in perspective: 1) The business is very strong with continued estimates of 60% revenue growth for the foreseeable future. 2) PSFT has met and/or exceeded expectations for many quarters running. 3) Developing business process software is a premiere growth industry and PSFT is well positioned to be a, perhaps the, major player. I continue to be bemused at the Y2K cliches that every professional and amateur analyst points to as an issue for these companies. It seems to me you have 3 basic types promoting this hysteria - 1) lunatic alarmists like Ed Yardeni (who knows what this guy's motivations are; either wants to be the hero that gets people to pay attention to the problem or he and his firm have a major short position), 2) analysts that are simply outthinking themselves, and 3) everybody else who watches too much tv and reads too many analyst reports. Anyway, the simple truth is this: 1 - Business is very competive 2 - To make money, you need to be efficient 3 - To be efficient, you need automated, repeatable processes continually tuned and improved for your business 4 - To have automated, repeatable processes, you need computers and software 5 - To get software, you need to buy it 6 - To buy it, you need to give PeopleSoft lots of money 7 - After you buy it, you need to continually improve it (Go Back To Step 3) So, as you can see, business is in a never ending continuous loop in steps 3 through 7 - Buy PeopleSoft ! All this BS about Y2K is a distraction, it takes away from much more important business drivers that have been in place for the last 20 years driving business to demand robust business software. The other thing to keep in mind is that PeopleSoft is down not because business is bad (it's terrific), but because the premium valuations have been removed from the market due to perceptions of increasing risk of recession. PeopleSoft was vulnerable due to it's high valuation and many stockholders with massive gains to protect. Cheers. Rick.