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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (19895)	9/3/1998 2:51:00 PM
From: steve susko	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

The pit info from your broker is simply dead nut. Could I trade with him?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (19895)	9/3/1998 2:54:00 PM
From: Kona	Respond to of 50167

IQ, 30 days hath September, so we have plenty of time to watch the month play out. I keep the quote.com applet open at all times and it is fascinating watching the daily fencing match.

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (19895)	9/3/1998 6:30:00 PM
From: Jerry Olson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

IKE Here's what I was talking about on Latin America....problems ahead.....serious problems...for European & Americn banks.... U.S. stocks end sharply lower, Latam concerns grow By Marjorie Olster NEW YORK, Sept 3 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks slumped Thursday on growing concerns about the financial health of Latin America after a Colombian devaluation and a slide in regional share markets. Bank shares, which had already been under pressure from losses due to Russian exposure, were hardest hit by the new signs of trouble spreading to Latin America. ''The psychology of the Colombia devaluation yesterday started creeping into the market today,'' said Arthur Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co. ''Everyone was just starting to talk about Russia. That Colombia devaluation reeks of global economic slowdown moving to Latin America,'' he added. Blue chips closed off day lows thanks to a last-minute recovery that slashed losses. The Dow ended down 100.15 points, or 1.29 percent, at 7682.22. The Nasdaq composite fell 20.99 points, 1.32 percent, to 1571.86. The S&P500 lost 8.21 points to 982.26. The Russell 2000 index of smaller stocks fell 6.36 points, 1.80 percent, to 346.29. Declines outpaced advances 2-1 on the Big Board on very heavy volume of 878,846,470 shares. Brazil's key share index closed down 8.61 percent, at a two-year low, after Moody's Investors Service downgraded the country's credit ratings. Venezuelan shares fell 7.5 percent after Standard & Poor's rating agency said the bolivar currency was ''extremely'' overvalued and a devaluation is likely in the coming months. The Venezuelan market was also hurt by news late Wednesday night that the government's third attempt at privatizing its troubled aluminum sector had failed. Argentine shares closed about 6.0 percent lower. Moody's said it may cut Argentina's long-term foreign currency country ceiling for bonds and notes and long-term foreign currency country ceiling for bank deposits. ''People are definitely starting to wonder when this is going to crack in Latin America,'' said Paul Rich, a trader at BT Brokerage. The already battered U.S. banks were particularly vulnerable to bad news in their own backyard. ''As long as it was just Russia and Asia, banking losses were limited,'' said Hogan. ''But if the economic problems move into Latin America, that could start to run into some money.'' Citicorp (CCI - news) shares plunged 9-3/4 to 98-1/2. Chase Manhattan (CMB - news) eased 5-5/8 to 49-1/4. Dow component J.P. Morgan slid 7-1/8 to 88. Bankers Trust (BT - news) lost 7-1/16 to 66-15/16. Brokerages were also punished. Morgan Stanley Dean Witter (MWD - news) fell 5-1/8 to 53-15/16. Merill Lynch (MER - news) tumbled 4-1/16 to 63-13/16. Lehman Brothers (LEH - news) fell 4-1/16 to 38-3/8. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange bank index slid 3.20 percent. Reassuring words from U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin may have helped lift stocks off their lows late in the day. The Dow was down more than 200 points about halfway through the final hour of trade. But it quickly turned around after Rubin repeated that the U.S. economy continues on a path of solid growth, low inflation. Earlier, Rubin said financial turmoil has had some spillover effect on Latin America. He added that developments in the region were ''profoundly important'' to Washington. The market opened on a negative note after a further slide in the Russian rouble. There was also talk that the Russian Duma could be ready to press ahead with impeachment proceedings against President Boris Yeltsin next week. ''There has been negative rhetoric coming out of Russia all day,'' said Hogan. ''The Russian government is looking like something closer to the government they had during the cold war.'' Meanwhile, the third-quarter U.S. profit outlook has dimmed because of turmoil in global economies. The current quarter is now expected to produce profit growth of just 2.1 percent for companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 index according to research tracking firm First Call. Technology, transportation and small stocks were all hard hit by the sell-off. But there were a few pockets of strength. Drug shares rallied, gold stocks soared with gold prices and oil and tobacco stocks advanced. Wall Street analysts have been urging selective buying in sectors like drugs and retailers which depend more on domestic consumer demand. Among drug shares, Dow component Merck & Co. (MRK - news) added 3-1/2 to 123-1/2. Tobacco firm Philip Morris (MO - news) gained 9/16 to 42-15/16. Oil services firm Schlumberger Ltd (SLB - news) rose 1-1/2 to 47-1/4. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange index of gold and silver shares (^XAU - news) spiked up 12.68 percent. Shares of Barrick Gold (ABX - news) gained 1-1/2 to 15-1/4. Some retailers also posted gains. CostCo Cos (COST - news) surged 4-7/8 to 49-15/16 after announcing a six percent increase in same-store sales for the month. Shares of mammoth chipmaker Intel Corp (INTC - news) gained 1-7/8 to 76-3/4 after Morgan Stanley Dean Witter raised its earnings estimates for the firm. The Dow Jones Transportation Average fell 2.89 percent. ''There are pockets of leadership in the market. It is not capitulation,'' said Charlie Payne, head analyst at Wall Street Strategies. ''Next week when everybody is back, the bulls are going to make a little noise.'' More Quotes and News: Bankers Trust New York Corp (NYSE:BT - news) Barrick Gold Corp (NYSE:ABX - news) Chase Manhattan Corp, The (NYSE:CMB - news) Citicorp (NYSE:CCI - news) Costco Cos Inc (Nasdaq:COST - news) GOLD/SILVER INDX (Philadelphia Stock Exchange) (^XAU - news) Intel Corp (Nasdaq:INTC - news) Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (NYSE:LEH - news) Merck & Co Inc (NYSE:MRK - news) Merrill Lynch & Co Inc (NYSE:MER - news) Morgan Stanley, Dean Witter & Co (NYSE:MWD - news) Philip Morris Companies Inc (NYSE:MO - news) SCHLUMBERGER LTD (NYSE:SLB - news) Related News Categories: US Market News Help Copyright c 1998 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon See our Important Disclaimers and Legal Information.

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (19895)	9/3/1998 10:22:00 PM
From: Greg Butcher	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

I had left early today ...just wanted to thank you for your response this morning. Been reading your thread now for over a year and have learned a lot. thanks again Greg

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (19895)	9/4/1998 4:01:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Hedge Funds, Put up or shut up-ASEA did not collapse and Europe may stay on course, the big one may not come today. It may be another long day? If big falls were so easy to predict on voodoo technique or rumor mongering realists would be out of business. Every new day brings hopes of disasters, but ASEAN markets must have spilled a lot of cold water on man's wishes. Markets I wish would be as easy to predict the way we have made them to be-- OHHH It is going to be down or It is going to be up or it will be a bad day-- alas for market players like me it is not that I always play on long side rather my thread is one of the most realistic, my fiercest opponents (in and out side SI)on the trading floor have this habit to read what I have to say. Yesterday, I predicted when markets were heavily down and when we were hitting 964 that we are not going down I also wrote we go higher at 990- I also made a case why we could move higher, as Latin AMEIRCA will benefit from US $ weakness. I then pointed out strange contradiction were few days ago the reasons of market weakness were not Yen strength- go back few posts and you will find pages and pages of stories talking about consequences of China's break, was not the Mondays serious sell off not a result of rumors in the market that we are going to see a melt down on back off Wall Street taking out 200 days MA, I was again pointing out clearly- no it will not be so Nikkei and HSI will not take the bait. The day I stop adding something new. which is not available in today's WSJ I will stop writing, on my thread I try to open my heart to various anamolies and flagrant violations of market discipline, I see in utter disgust short point of views so hardly pressed that voice of reason is considered as out of fashion, shot shot play on the short side, I bring objectivity and reasoning to my posts and I don't mind being wrong but I will like the fundamentals to be in place for a bear market, those fundamental requirments do not exist, deflation is not a magic that if you don't have inflation you will get deflations... We saw next day against all dooms sayers predictions we saw rallies in Europe and in WS as well. Last night was again another dismal show of hopelessness on the day itself before the open and later when they realized that they are wrong they shifted the emphasis that it is going to be tomorrow. I would be rather wrong million times as I have been but with reasons. This whole exercise to spread rumors based on voodoo techniques is now making a joke of itself. When these people talk about markets they have no plan ever to translate market movements into trades- market will be down big-- why no reasons? Today we are again seeing HSI coming up very strongly-- defying short sellers, behind all this are big huge Hedge Funds who like vultures descend on weak bodies of these developing countries under pre-text of free market economy and play havoc with them. How many of us can pay our long term borrowing or mortgages of our houses if our loans are called in? Not many so does these countries, if with 70 billion $ Brazil is weak or real can be taken out I would rather shut this whole mockery of free market where IMF insists on capital account convertibility and prepare grounds for these vultures and school drop outs to make billions under the name of incorporating efficiencies in the global system. These hedge funds have been given such a severe beating in HK that they asked Financial Journalists to write stories on draw backs of HK authorities intervening on stock exchange. Today the biggest story is all forgotten that China needs not to devalues, they cannot gang up against HK through double play, so we have this new threat of Brazil- Now Brazil is not the kind of state which has plundered wealth, they have like a good nation under a good President maintained good macro economic policies, TBR was privatized recently and they have lot of reserves. To go after a perfect nation and plant rumors to make a huge killing of +12% from below 54% returns is a rime. The only other way to do is to plant rumors, some young fresh graduate on all these stories downgrade Brazil and short hedge Funds make enough to portray themselves as heroes. These very short funds demand openess of global systems how many of them will be able to sustain the similar test of liquidity they impose on these developing economies? Banks keep 8% as adequacy liquid requirement, imagine if their is a demand of 40% of its deopisits overnight how many banks will be able to operate? The global system is based on trust and confidence, when long term projects for development are financed by incoming short term funds first anamoly appears, it is natural that these countries would suffer if all the funds are drained, even their legitimate earnings are sucked out as they try to defend their currency, it is advisable that we develop with reason and logic slow and steady-- lets not buy the growth off the shelf and our investment needs to have a human compassion otherwise let these markets find theri own steady course difficult but atlest not backbreaking! I am not a bull and I have repeated it many a times, my best trades most profitable trades are on short side, last few days for my account have been nothing but phenomenal even one trade on the opening yesterday gave me enough pleasure however I remain a optimist because I don't see consistency in all these rumors-- 1st was Japan Banks and Japan will withdraw funds from US TB-- that did not happen. 2nd was ASEAN crisis is reemerging- but so far that re-emergence have not filtered down in economic releases. Industrial production numbers were one example and nearly everyone was worried about inflation just few months back now sees threat of deflation, two contradictory economic phenomenon. 3rd was China Yuan under siege-- Japanese Yen weakness would cripple ASEA, second round of economic weakness will start. That was big news until last month, HK battle was won and Peg threat was considerably reduced, Yen moved to 135 against $, China decline was arrested and HK was able to save guard its interests. 4th All of a sudden Russia became a problem, we just discovered that Russians have no clothes, were Russians not depending on barter since last 5 years, is transformation of economies so easy from 70 years of state control to 5 years of capitalistic system. Russian PM may be rejected again but in my opinion the whole emphasis of destruction and gloom facing our future is wrong. My thread is one place where I try to reason out things in context of our development I try to separate hype from reality. On Russia the problem is not over but the stock market is little stable. 5th rumor is Brazil -like all the other rumors this is plain non-sense, Brazil is as good in shape as it was three months ago- nothing warrants to short Brazil. In my opinion all these various events their timing and the undue importance given to them is manipulation of highest order of the free markets, if hedge funds are long ASEA every good will be highlighted if they are short ASEA they would find every conceivable rumor to throw in the market. The above five events plus North Korean missile being fired over Japan, or Saddam problems or commodities price problems are presented as potential threats, in a short span of 2 months this has brought DOW down to 7600 level-- on one hand I calmly see all this on the other hand the inquisitive side of me just keep asking questions to my own faculty of reason as to the source of all this various unfounded rumors. Why it so that HK goes in background when Russian issues are in fore front, Why Russia goes in background when Brazil is suspected? Last but not least why it is that many of these markets come back up like rocket once financial media starts hyping some other story- Now HK is up whereas Brazil is down, even Russia is up---if these stories have enough of matter the markets in question should not pop up the way they do.. I wish every country may act like Chinese did they closed their Yuan against any speculation and screwed this lot of vultures royally by stopping the double play as I highlighted last week no one was willing to talk of huge massive losses HF suffered when last Friday 90,000 short contracts expired, who covered them at what price if we have answer of this we will all have smile on our faces.. I never have invested in Russia I was not a fool to take my money to any other country when I could see some decent returns in WS- these guys look for returns in excess of 50% and they say allegedly that they make a fundamental bet on both counts they are liars they foreclose on poor countries tie their hands on their back and shoot them in their heads, these guys have no idea of risk and when the return is so disproportionate to size of investment I don't mind if they loose further monies as far I am concern I look at things , I am not a junkie or a zombie and will make calls that make sense, for me making money is an art they have bastardized the art by foreclosing style of operations.. Their is another angle to big losses of hedge funds and that would be interesting to see how they unwind but we all live in interesting times if Latin American can hold which I think they can we are going to see some big move in one area I will research and write on that soon. Markets looking good in Germany predictions about Europe giving a good cue so far on track.. I will like to think that today will be a good day to do some selective buying--

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (19895)	9/4/1998 4:18:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Hedge Funds Get BushwhackedBy Andrew Serwer What a bummer! Why? Well, the Dow was UP 124 points at one point, then the bond market closed and BOOM, stocks fell. (i.e., the games ended). And so the Dow fell 45 points, to 7782. So much for the rally (you foolish things!). An interesting point: The NASDAQ held up!!!! Hooray! It climbed 17, to 1592. And there was even some strength in the poor miserable Russell!! Here's what we've been following today: HEDGE FUNDS.... Okay, let's take this one from the top. Market mayhem reeked some SERIOUS havoc on these funds: You wouldn't believe what I have been through gettingthese stories. Man! OMEGA ADVISORS.... You know these guys? Mega-hedge fund run by Leon Cooperman, big cheese, formerly of Goldman Sachs. You may have heard they are in trouble. HERE is the scoop. Talked to Lee, and frankly it wasn't pretty. (He so NASTY!) Okay, Coop WAS up 12% for the year, was doin' fine. Then he got hit in the U.S., just like the rest of us in July in August. But, to be fair, he actually did better than the rest of us. But, he GOT CREAMED in emerging market equities and bonds. Now, Lee says he is down over 10%. Lee got very hot talking to me on the phone, telling me reporters were out of control. (Oh yeah, it's all my fault!) Telling me to invest a million in his fund or chill, etc. Okay, after the emerging markets fiasco, Lee told me that he dinged the guys in that group. "We parted ways because I didn't feel they were prudent in the risk management part of the business." Yeah baby! Zapped 'em! FIRED. Just like I told YOU, Lee. So what's up with Omega? It's whole, but an excellent source tells me Lee needs to get back to 12% before he gets paid. There is a possibility that Lee shuts this fund down and returns money to investors. Start all over again. But Lee saidhe would never do that. LONG TERM CAPITAL MANAGEMENT.... Okay the letter! Have you heard? First of all, Long Term Capital is the black box hedge fund run by Jon Meriwether in Greenwich, CT--he was the BSD at Salomon Bros, the boss of the bond business there. He sent out a letter to clients on Wednesday that is an INCREDIBLE cry for help!!!! Incredible. I won't do it chapter and verse because it will be all over tomorrow. But, let me just say one big time trader I know who saw the letter said there is a very good chance this firm is dead!!!! Why? Because they are down 52% for the year. And they are leveraged. And they are BEGGING for money. I happen to know that they just asked one of the biggest hedge fund managers in the world for a billion dollars today and he said, "Thanks, but that's really not our thing." Click. Also it looks like the employees will have to work for FREE for a year or so which is, uh, unlikely. Also, the letter said they returned $2.7 billion in cap on 1/1/98. My understanding is they were essentially forcing out the little guys--who were of course pissed off they were pushed out of the fund--so the principals could have more return. (Hee, hee, hee, little guys happy now!!!) Sooooo, what kicked the sit out of LTCM? My understanding is swap spreads. What are they? Basically these were, go long corporate bonds and short Treasuries. In August 1998. Oh. My. God. FREAKING KILLED!! So LTCM was down 44% for the month of August!! Believe me: this fund/company could be toast!!!! The other point is, I don't think these trades are completely unwound yet!! In other words that 52% could get WORSE!!!!! Check this out: "...invest [now] in LTCM with special terms relating to fees." Yeah RIGHT! Moral: You can be too smart. Or, never trust a blackbox!