To: Shelia Jones who wrote (2524 ) 9/3/1998 9:56:00 PM From: Thean Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 14427
Shelia, It looks like we share more in common than just investing. Regarding gold, I think I have to take them more seriously now. At one time I knew a lot of gold stocks but no more. So far I have got three names from Papaya and LT - NEM, ABX and ASA. ASA pays high divident (is this a S. African gold mine?). My basis for interest is the alarming fall in the US$. I now have them on my radar screen but I don't think I will buy or trade them just yet. Today's runup is an overreaction and they will likely correct in the next few days. It takes a no gainer in gold price but a steady gainer in gold stock price to firmly establish a trend. But I will do my usual TA on them and begin to develop some feel for them. Not convinced the US$ will lose 50% of its value versus other world currencies and thus don't see a strong surge in gold price in the next year. If Clinton resigns, we may get a $20 pickup in gold price and 10% tank in the US$ but that may be it. The drillers got one of the stronger rebounds today. However, this is not across the board and there are still plenty of selling (and shorting) into strength. If oil can't touch $15 soon (in the next two sessions) and fades, well, you know the rest of the story. Will see how they behave tomorrow. We are in September now and the wind is also beginning to blow a little bit colder now. If there is such thing as El Nina, and some more key oil producers can't produce, we may indeed see a seasonal increase in oil price. In this scenario, the drillers may get a 30-50% lift (like in March of this year) while oil trades between $14 - $17 with signs of dayrate stabilizing. My approach is see how things develop first and take up position accordingly. It is premature to bet on either direction at this point. Too much uncertainty and too many things need to happen. Clinton - the TV is talking about him again all evening long. The I word and the R word are all over the airwave. As long as the mass media can draw audience with these types of programming, the shorts and put holders are safe from a sustainable rebound to the upside, IMO.