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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (6148)	9/4/1998 1:36:00 AM
From: Dayuhan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Ramsey, Just discussing this move on the Japan/Nikkei thread. My own feeling is that the yen/dollar move is less due to a perception of improvement in the Japanese situation than to a perception of weakening in the American economy. The danger is that on a political level this could be used to justify indefinite delay in implementing necessary reforms in Japan. Thoughts? Steve

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (6148)	9/4/1998 11:04:00 AM
From: Paul Berliner	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Ramsey, Joseph is right on the money. Like I've posted earlier, the yen's move was triggered by just a few hedge fund big boys cashing in the profitable position to meet margin calls on the Russian debt losses. But how can it go so low? Well, I'm a strong believer in the domino theory. Chip, a London currency trader who placed his stop at 140, had it triggered by the first hedge fund sales.... mike, a NY trader with a stop at 139.8 had it triggered by the likes of Bill's sale, and so on and so forth. As the dollar slid, traders whom didn't want to liquidate or didn't place a stop then sold the dollar vs. the mark. to hedge any further depreciation of that oh so profitable short yen position. That's my opinion of what happened. What other reason could their be for the dollar to fall while recently, money is pouring into U.S. Govt. Secs. from all over the world? As for whether this short-term phenomenon will have a positive or negative effect on Japan, I don't know, but Korea should have a field day pushing their chips on us now (there WAY cheaper than Japan's chips now - and were pretty cheap just weeks ago). I know this isn't semiconductor forum, but why would anyone by AMAT when chip prices have fallen so sharply as of the last 6 to 12 months. The handsome margins from 1995-97 are now comparable to a steel producers!