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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (5551)	9/4/1998 2:14:00 PM
From: JZGalt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18928

Tom, Problems in Nigeria are putting somewhat of a floor under oil prices for now. Once oil started up, the oil service companies jumped in reaction (perhaps premature) although we could see a short squeeze in these stocks if it continues. MXF has always been a dog in my portfolio. Never going up as much as the broad market and dropping faster when the market slides. Can I make a suggestion? My plan is to dump MXF at some point in time and switch it with the WEBS of Mexico. These are kind of like the S&P500 of Mexico, yet they don't carry the baggage of the closed end fund which has at times forced us to buy more shares. Essentially this is a tax loss swap for me at this point. I haven't given up on Mexico, just this fund. BTW, the MXF and the other Latin American markets are feeling the Moody's downgrade in their bonds. Brazil finances a significant portion of it's debt with short term paper so this hits hard. The result is spilling over into the multinational banks such as CCI and CMB where investors are fearing a significant writedown ala Russia. If oil is in fact stabilizing, you should remember that the economies of Mexico, Venezuela and Brazil will have the hard currency to meet their debt obligations and the currencies will recover somewhat. Point of interest. Since the top in July Citicorp has dropped in market cap by $41 billion dollars. They fessed up to $200 million dollars worth of losses in Russia and their merger partner (Travelers) fessed up to $250 million. Wouldn't you think that a prudent person would think that wiping out $41 billion dollars worth of market cap is excessive for a one time charge of less the 1/2 a billion dollars?? Similar losses in market cap have been handed to Chase. These are not Japanese banks which have tremendous amounts of loans which are non-performing, but some of the largest banks in the United States. At some point in time, these companies are great buys, but the way the market is reacting, they appear to be going broke. I own both, but am considering additional purchase over the next two months. ---- Dave