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Technology Stocks : Identix (IDNX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David who wrote (10198)	9/4/1998 4:50:00 PM
From: David	Respond to of 26039

Strong finish for the stock going into Labor Day weekend, after Brad and I had posted BUY recommendations . . . yeah, right. This is just my cheesy effort to get post 10200.

To: David who wrote (10198)	9/4/1998 5:02:00 PM
From: brad greene	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26039

David, I can't agree more......Brad's post is "right on". The most important points are simply that IDX is trading at less than 1x this years sales......This is fire sale for a company that has such a dominating position in their respective market. Anyone who investigates similar market dominators, will find, profitable or not, they are valued at 2.5x to 5x sales. Identix's growth rates and dominating market position is not showing up in it's share price. With one million shares of IDX in short position..(15+ days to cover)...the funds and individuals who hold these positions must be asking themselves whether there is one heck of a lot of downside left in this stock.......They already are showing 100% gains. Unless they are expecting Fowler to be arrested, or a bunch of lawsuits to begin falling from the sky.......They should be in a covering mood. If they wait too much longer.....IDX may just help them see the light. bg ps. I must correct you......IDX sells for $ 5 1/8 right now. It was very strong in the last hour.......A short who read my post, no doubt.

To: David who wrote (10198)	9/7/1998 2:40:00 AM
From: Westergaard	Respond to of 26039

TO David In DC: Interesting analysis. You are obviously knowledgeable about IDX. My problem with your's and Sollie's approach is that it's too short term. When stock ideas as original as IDX come along, I've found that it really pays to think big and look down the road 3-5 years. Our scenario at Westergaard Broadcasting sees this stock as a $60 number five years from now. That says you can buy 10,000 shares for $50,000 and make 10x your money. That may be a reach but at 5, how wrong can you go??? The Sollie report is much to narrowly focused in my opinion. Good research but small time conclusion, but that's inevitable with brokerage research these days where the analysts have lawyers all over them all the time. Cyberstation WBN-IDX is in process of being fully revised and updated. wbn.com

To: David who wrote (10198)	9/7/1998 12:16:00 PM
From: jean	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26039

OK, David, I'm cheered up - I guess. Thanks for the analysis. Are you sure you don't need a job? Westergaard could certainly use you!! Hope the new site employs someone who checks grammar and spelling :). Jean

To: David who wrote (10198)	9/17/1998 11:44:00 AM
From: David	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 26039

Time to revise the present value model, now that we have the 10-K: Once again, I will accept the $2 Salomon figure for nonbiometric ANADAC (although I will include the pass-through sales within this valuation . . . at 3% reseller profit [from last CC] on about $11.6M, that's only $350K in profits . . . times 20 . . . perhaps $.28 per share value). TP-600 sales: Much less than I originally estimated, but growing much faster. Using last year's estimated $32.4M in sales growing at 75%, it looks like this year's sales will be about $56.7M . . . times 10% net (I think this could be conservative) = $5.67M . . . at a discounted 40 multiple, that comes to a $9 valuation. Once again, plug in Sylvan for $.03 EPS estimate times twenty, or $.60 value. Bio-ID: Last year's sales were $6.4M, down from the year before due to the Asian economic collapse. Early signs this year are that IDX will have a good bio-ID year (California prisons, Australia deal, California youth authority, Bank of Cairo, maybe Malaysian bank (maybe not)). Realizing this one is more speculative, I'll forecast a $12M bio-ID year, net margin of maybe 15% = $1.8M profit . . . times 30 P/E . . . a $2.15 valuation. In summary: $2 ANADAC + $9 TP-600s + $.60 Sylvan + $2.15 bio-ID = $13.75.