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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wooden ships who wrote (7618)	9/4/1998 4:05:00 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

Truman <<...as the market continues to defy Brinker's imputed Marketimer model, it becomes more than obvious that we Money- Talk and Marketimer adherents have lost Brinker as our commander and our guide through these rough seas. His flawed advice of late has cost many of us dearly, not merely for the paper losses but, even more, for the opportunity costs attendant upon his recent recom- mendations. >> Am I one of the few believers remaining on this thread? This market is undervalued, based on interest rates and inflation, at these levels. These levels present a strong opportunity to buy in at great prices. Purely political events currently effecting the market, along with panic selling are white noise and temporary. I have been buying for the past two weeks with what remaining funds I have left (yes, the money is running out), but I have no doubt come late this year or early next or sooner I will be profiting. I noticed a couple of days ago that Abbey Joseph Cohen has increased her equity allocation. Her reputation and money, her job, and partnership prospects at Goldman Sachs, like Bob Brinker's, is on the line and I have no doubt that she too has made the correct call. My prospects on the line are smaller just my net worth. STAY FULLY INVESTED, KEEP INVESTING, PURCHASE GREAT COMPANIES AT LOWER PRICES, BE PATIENT, AND SOON THIS TOO SHALL PASS. P.S. In the event I am wrong, Mr. GreenJeans and Mr. Moose are going to the poor house.

To: wooden ships who wrote (7618)	9/4/1998 4:25:00 PM
From: Alan Bell	Respond to of 42834

Truman, All of us would have liked to have had Bob call this correction. Likewise, this correction has reminded us that we have to, as you say, act for ourselves. But the results of evaluating Bob's advice can't be viewed in isolation. Such an evaluation is only relevant in relation to other strategies. For many trekkies, including myself, the other strategy would be "buy and hold." Buy and hold also missed this correction. Some other people would have chosen bearish strategies. But I claim, except for a few very lucky people, this strategy would have had people out of the market a long time ago and down more than we are now. -- Alan

To: wooden ships who wrote (7618)	9/4/1998 5:37:00 PM
From: Rillinois	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

Truman, per MARKETIMER Bob's vaunted and twice-told "buying opportunity" was under 1100 on the S&P 500 not 1090. Best Regards. Rillinois

To: wooden ships who wrote (7618)	9/4/1998 8:04:00 PM
From: Investor2	Respond to of 42834

RE: "In July 1998, and afterwards, you quietly stated that you were reducing your allocation to stocks, both US and European, within your portfolio. In August following, you again quietly enunciated your intention not to participate in Brinker's vaunted and twice-told "buying opportunity" below 8650 on the DJIA and 1090 on the S&P 500." Thank you for the kudos, but it was really Bob that told me to follow the above path. First, Bob always says that the most important decision one makes is the asset allocation. This should be done considering all of your financial assets as a single portfolio. Following Bob's advice, I set my asset allocation at a level I was comfortable at. Second, at the time the market was making new highs, Bob reminded each and every listener to get his/her asset allocation in line. He specifically pointed out the fact that the big stock gains from huge bull market may have resulted in an overweighted equity position and that, with the market at historical high valuations, investors should correct any imbalances. So, I again followed Bob's advice and reduced my equity exposure to my desired allocation. Nevertheless, I did buy some stocks and mutual fund shares over the past week. These purchases were predominately made with new money and money from some of my stock sales when the market was at highs. The valuations of many stocks are really starting to get compelling. Of course, if we move into a world depression similar to or worse than 1929/30's, as many on SI are forecasting, I will have made a mistake. Best wishes, I2

To: wooden ships who wrote (7618)	9/4/1998 10:54:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

Truman, I think you're throwing the baby out with the bath water. Just as it was premature for Brinker to declare victory at DOW 8650, it is premature for you to declare his defeat. Prior to the current downturn, I remember Bob talking of an intermediate correction as a possibility, but if you are expecting him to forecast the depth of every correction, I think you are expecting the impossible, and something which is not in fact part of his timing model. He does not recommend jumping in and out of the market based on his outlook. The only reason he changes from dollar-cost-average mode to buy mode at certain price levels is because of the obvious point, which he has made repeatedly, that when prices are lower, risk is lower, and when prices are higher risk is higher. I2 has already told you that he adjusted his asset allocation in response to Bob's advice. Nevertheless, if you are looking for a short-term timing model, then in my opinion you are looking in the wrong place. My understanding is that Bob's timing model is attempting to warn of the next long-term bear market. We don't yet know if this is it, and that is why I say that it is too early to declare defeat.