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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Trader who wrote (3326)	9/4/1998 4:03:00 PM
From: SE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 44573

I am done for today--really!! Aw, come on. Let's talk about the weather.....really. Come on. ROFLMAO. Have a good weekend....I am gone as well. -Scott

To: Tom Trader who wrote (3326)	9/6/1998 8:59:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 44573

Tom, Glad to hear that your system gave a continuation sell signal, I've been waiting for this kind of confirmation. How many in a row already? The rally of the last half hour of trade remains a mystery. Some say short covering - But why would the shorts wait for the close on a long weekend Friday? Some say because Brazil shot back up- But the BOVESPA still closed 6% DOWN. IMO it was an orchestrated rally in order to keep the media (relatively) quiet for the weekend. The OEX closed just high enough to remain up for the year. Looking at the last hour of trade, the future held 958.5 as flat bottom from 15:04 to 15:17, remarkably long while, then there was a failed rally for less then 10 minutes to 965. As the market fell to a new low of 956.5 at 15:32, the future, which made 955 a minute before, jumped to 959 and waited for the market at 958.5-960. The market rallied quite sluggishly to 959, and the future zoomed to 964 at 15:37. The rest was probably short covering, but the reverse from what looked like an accelerating decline is what raises my suspicion. After all, the big houses could lose a lot more business should the market continue south, and an optimistic close helps them prevent more bad media over the weekend. Looking ahead, I still think that the first 20 minutes of trade on Tuesday will tell the tale: If we gap up ATO then the decline from 9/2 top to 9/4 bottom was the b of 2 of 3, and the c can take us back to 1020-1030 area Wed afternoon. IMO we'll crash from there, but if we close over the 13 DMA (around 1025-1030 by then), then all bets are off- crash phase is over. Since every indicator I look at still points to the crash phase as running full steam ahead medium term, then if we open up the following is a very good scenario: Tuesday up 2.5%, daily high flirting with SPX 1000. Wednesday mostly up, daily high SPX 1018 around 14:15, then starting to reverse, closing slightly down. Then IMO The Big One will hit in a Thu-Fri-Mon crash combination. If we gap down, then I was only two days early, and we crash straight down. Looking at individual stocks, these two scenarios both make sense. INTC, PG - Should head straight down. I would be surprised if not. KO, GE - have some room to maneuver, more to KO Will continue later

To: Tom Trader who wrote (3326)	9/6/1998 2:49:00 PM
From: Clay M	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 44573

Hi Tom. I haven't spoken with you in a while, as I don't come this way too often, but glad to hear that your move from West to East went OK. I'm still trading the S&P's, which these days keeps you busy. My trading has gone from trading the 2-3 days swings to a much shorter time frame, and more often daytrading. It makes it even tougher when you have problems entering orders, getting fills, etc. It's an interesting market, and with the bearish sentiment and apparently a large short and put position, I wouldn't be surprised to see a decent rally get going pretty soon, although it might have to test or take out the lows first. What would be funny, is see a dip below 936 to take out all the stops, and turn around to rally to about 1070 to take out all the shorts, then tank below 900. Maybe not funny, but it would make for interesting trading. The market always seems to want to shake out as many weak holders as it can before it turns for a big move. Hope trading is going well for you. Regards, Clay.