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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (3332)	9/5/1998 2:39:00 PM
From: SE	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 44573

Maybe someone out there can help me figure this out. This does not make sense to me. Greenspan says we are in a deflationary mode and everywhere on SI the word is all of a sudden bullish. This does not make sense. If we are in deflation, prices come down, earnings come down. Net debtors will feel a pinch, which I believe most in the US are...maybe that is wrong. The bond professionals are 98.5% bullish (I read that somewhere on SI earlier). If true, what does that mean? I know people are saying go into bonds, but somehow my gutt tells me to avoid bonds as an investment right now. I think 98.5% bullish is a bad sign for bonds. What did we have a while back, 80% of S&P traders were bearish or something like that. I believe that was at the most recent lows. I think I also read that the estimates on the S&P 500 are being cut and right now stand at $44 to $45, down from $48. If we are in a deflationary mode, would a PE of 20 or better seem reasonable? What if we figure the mid point $44.5 and a PE of 15....that is 667.50. Wow.... We have Russia and Latin America blowing up their currencies. We have Clinton with the possibility of impeachment staring him in the face. All this and Greenspeak says deflation and that means bullish? I guess I will never make a market prognosticator because it all doesn't make sense to me. I believe any rally that comes will be short lived and a great time to sell. Oh yeah.....and even though commidity prices are way down, it appears that oil is on the way up from what I read. I did not check the charts on this so I might be wrong, but if oil and gold are cooking, what does that say? Not to mention oil should be a strong indicator of higher prices since it is used across the board in production. If prices rise in oil, I would think other prices soon follow.... What am I missing? -Scott

To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (3332)	9/5/1998 3:48:00 PM
From: SE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 44573

I just read an interesting comment that I am going to spend some time thinking about. "The hardest part of thinking outside the box, is acknowledging that you're in one." -Scott

To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (3332)	9/7/1998 7:58:00 PM
From: Tom Trader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 44573

Hi Patrick --- hope that you had a good weekend I had a very pleasant and relaxing weekend >>No offense intended No offense taken. The Arch Crawford comment was because I happened to be listening to him at the point when I posted that message. No, I don't have any belief in astrology or the like. Crawford learned his technical stuff from Bob Farrell--the astrology bit is a combination of sincere belief and PR, to get some publicity, IMO. But that is not to say that I am averse to having a little fun as long as it is harmless. Some years ago when the company I worked for was sold, as part of the farewell party that was organized, a tarot card reader was retained--and given that everyone was going to be out of a job, there seemed to be a considerable demand for her services by all and sundry. She did her thing with me and came up with this incredibly rosy forecast for my future, which included the fact that I was unlikely to ever work in a corporate enviroment again--which was remarkably prescient given that even I did not know that it was the the direction that I was going to be headed--let alone the fact that I was in active negotiations with more than one prospective employer at the time. She also said that I would never be wanting again financially for the rest of my life -- which of course remains to be seen. Said some other nice things -- did not say anything negative, which I assumed was just good politics. >>BTW, I have to copy you on an arrogant post I received the other night. I hate these "Post and Run" Jokers who slam me and then walk away.<< I read the one that you were referring to--and I can understand why you were upset. If it is any consolation, I get hit once in a while with this crap--but more often than not it really does not faze me. Re the market--looks like I am going to be slammed tomorrow on a short trade, unless the market does a complete U turn, in sort order -- which seems unlikely. I'll chat with you tomorrow.