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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wooden ships who wrote (7628)	9/4/1998 8:06:00 PM
From: DD™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

TEXT-Greenspan speech on U.S., global economy biz.yahoo.com DD

To: wooden ships who wrote (7628)	9/4/1998 11:19:00 PM
From: Alan Norton	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42834

RE: The Goal In any case, there may, in future, be those who will listen to "MoneyTalk" with a more critical ear and read "Marketimer" with a more discerning eye than heretofore. There are other StarShip travelers who will doubtless be more inclined to de- pend upon their own faculties, instincts, and acuity of mind in charting their own course through these difficult times. Truman, perhaps we shall all gain something from this, Bob included. We as investors will learn to start to think more for ourselves and Bob will have trained a cadre of students who have learned from his wisdom and who may eventually try to improve upon and add to the four major components of Bob's market timing model. Isn't that a legacy that is worth leaving for future generations? This can only be accomplished by teaching, not preaching. It is very difficult to find truly objective analysts in the market. They tend to fall into one of two camps, the bulls or the bears. To this end, I have to give credit to Ralph Acampora. At the risk of looking foolish, he stated publicly the dangers that lie ahead as he saw them. For those scoring at home, the goal can only be achieved by getting the right results from any model or opinion. Looking foolish is a risk worth taking to achieve this goal. Up until recently, getting the right results has been Mr. Brinker's claim to fame. The bull market has been relatively easy to ride during the nineties when the United States became to sole military superpower and new money flowed consistently into the market from employee IRA plans. We also had a healthy U.S. and world economy and the creation of new investing tools (namely the internet, interactive trading online and competitive transaction fees). Add to this the new media voices that has spread the word that the market is the only game in town, and a following of new market 'investors', some of whom have been caught up in a market mania, betting on the next new IPO or momentum stock and you have a market that could exceed all previous price/earnings ratios. Don't get me wrong. I believe that Bob's market timing model is grounded in many key fundamental indicators. I have to disagree though with Bob that this market is being led by news or media PR - indicators that his model does not track. For the first time in recent memory, the U.S. market is clearly being led by economic conditions in foreign markets. The U.S. markets have lost this leadership role in my opinion. Foreign economic concerns have spread like a plague from Southeast Asia, then to Russia, and now to Latin America and South America. Perhaps we do live in a global economy after all and that is what has unsettled the institutional investors of late. If this is indeed true, then when will the individual investors get this message? Will their confidence in the U.S. economy prove the institutional investors wrong once again and will this be enough to influence foreign investors? If there is any weakness in Bob's market timing model, it may be in the effects that these foreign markets have on corporate U.S. earnings and how quickly these effects can be translated into analysts projections, or conversely, perhaps it may be tied to the perception that the U.S. economy may no longer be in a global leadership role. Do we really believe that we are immune to these global effects? Have we as investors in the U.S. markets become so cavalier in our attitudes to think that this can't happen to us and that we are still the economic superpower that will come to the rescue of other countries in times of foreign monetary crisis? You cannot discuss these issues without reflecting on recent political events. The weakness in the U.S. markets may be more closely related to the turmoil in the White House than many of us are willing to admit.