Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : LSI Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jock Hutchinson who wrote (14796)	9/5/1998 8:21:00 PM
From: kash johal	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

Jock, I think the boom/bust cyclical analysis for high-tech semi companies is oversimplification. The reality is that semiconductor volume demand IS NOT decreasing but has been growing and will continue double digit growth for foreseeable years. The problem is overcapacity coupled by the incredible density's achieved by new deep sub-micron ic's. So despite what LSI, VLSI or anyone says folks are purchasing more ASICs, more PC's etc than last year. The problem is the prices they are paying are less-much less. In two to three years we will be at 0.18 micron as a mainstream process. This means that one increases density (and therefore capacity) by a factor of 4. There are still many new wafer foundries being built and total unit capacity will be increasing at a rate of approx. 50% per year for next 2-3 years. So yes, wafer capacity is not a problem right now and is not a foreseeable problem (at least 2-3 years out) and more probably 3-5 years out. Specifically on my business, yes we are a boutique ASIC business and do not expect to put LSI out of business by any stretch of the imagination, in fact my direct competition is folks like the FPGA companies. As to Taiwanese wafer foundry - we happen to use a fab in Singapore but I doubt that we could have a disruption in Taiwan wafer supply. If you are really concerned about this sort of thing, I believe that we are guaranteed a BIG ONE in the bay area within the next 20-30 years, so be carefull investing in any west coast companies. regards, Kash