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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (754)	9/5/1998 11:45:00 PM
From: stock bull	Respond to of 15132

Marc, I listened to Bob today and didn't find him subdued at all. In fact, he sounded like his "old self". I recorded the show and replayed it and still found him to be upbeat. He did admit that the foreign situation, developing as fast as it did, took him off guard. I believe its a good sign that Bob admitted to this, as he can now remedy the shortcomings of his model. Further, I suspect that he is going to watch the foreign situation closer than ever before. Bob thinks lower interest rates at this time will not only be good for our markets, but also be a good thing for the foreign markets. Lets see what Greenspan does over the next few weeks. He can lower rates without calling for an FOMC meeting. Stock Bull

To: marc ultra who wrote (754)	9/6/1998 7:01:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Marc: "I think a key issue for us is whether these international events which aren't accounted for in his model until a US effect can be surmised can drag us down hard and fast into a nasty bear market before any sell signal can be triggered. I don't think so and I think we are due for a big rally in the near term and hopefully there will be time for a sell signal and an exit if the time comes when it looks like the US will get dragged down." The international economic events are in his US model as a function of earnings estimates for the S & P. What any model cannot account for including Bob's is panic selling or international sentiment. We had panic selling last Monday in my opinion by institutions and foreigners. On the other side of the coin, Brinker's model cannot account for is panic buying which bids the market well above any historical measurement. Funny, nobody was complaining about that occurrence <GG>. Re: " I don't think so and I think we are due for a big rally in the near term." The rally is dependent upon the positive psychological impact of the potential for rate reductions by investor's worldwide. This should be interesting to watch come Tuesday. Re: "I am concerned about the possibility earnings could fall more rapidly than Bob is currently anticipating but we will see." I think that is a valid concern. Right after we have discounted one economic event, there is another one to discount. And the ripple effects are hard to measure. Re: "Looks like on top of recent losses I may have to add the cost of a modem." LOL. Maybe we can have our R & D do some work on a "Brinker Modem" which is guaranteed to give you a live MoneyTalk broadcast every weekend. Maybe we can rig our "Market Clapper" to turn it on? Say, how many pencils would you have to sell to earn enough money to buy a modem <GG>?