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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Yamakita who wrote (13539)	9/7/1998 7:54:00 PM
From: poodle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Yamakita, there is no questions that you know Japan better than me or, probably, JTC, so we are reading all your posts with great interest. However, being ignorant about the subject, I am looking at your logic, and it doesn't look completely perfect to me. Would you mind to look at your arguments again? For example, this is your discussion with JTC: "With the big bang why would the Japanese people put their money in the postal system earning 1/2% when hey can get 5 1/2% in the US?" "As it happens I'm writing a book on that very subject! The biggest reason is fear; stock markets, especially overseas stock markets, are seen as akin to Vegas: sheer gambling. The second biggest reason is exchange rates. If someone invests in Treasuries while the yen is at 140, and a year later it rises to 100 (it has a long history of doing that), you've just lost a ton of money, money that would've stayed put in the postal savings system. The yen has gone from 148 three weeks ago to 131 today, a tidy 13 percent drop in less than a month. They've just doubled the performance of Treasuries by not doing anything. " 1. Both of you are talking about Treasuries. Why this remark about stock market and gambling? 2. Exchange rate argument may be turned either way, unless all Japanese investors are confident that yen will go up and dollar down, and in no way vice versa. So, you provided two arguments, "the biggest" seems to be irrelevant, second does not look to me as an extremely good one either. Am I missing something? Would you mind to explain? "It is an extraordinarily conservative society. I hope my book convinces them to do otherwise." You hope that you can change "extraordinarily conservative society" by one book?<g> Have a nice evening.