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To: donald sew who wrote (51699)	9/7/1998 12:15:00 PM
From: James Strauss	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

Don: You may be right... The closure of the U.S. markets today while Asia is hopping may take some of the steam out of tomw's move... Jim

To: donald sew who wrote (51699)	9/7/1998 2:24:00 PM
From: Nancy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58727

don, World market upmoves are of course direct effect of AG's Friday night speech. He essentially put a floor in by hinting rate cut if U.S. market is further adversedly affected by the world. Govt cannot afford a recession caused by slowing consumer spending because of the negative wealth effect induced by a market crash. When the rate cut will come doesn't matter, what matters is now people feel that Fed will do something if things get out of control again. A turnaround of Psychology.

To: donald sew who wrote (51699)	9/7/1998 2:36:00 PM
From: Clay M	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

Hi Donald. From reading your posts, I've seen that you are into statistics, and FWIW I have a couple to pass on to you. Assuming that we are in a bear market and are going a lot lower, which is very possible, the only period that might be a comparable that I can think of would be 73-74. Have you looked at the data for this period? It's interesting to take a look at the DJIA from 1/73(top at 1067) to 12/74(bottom at 570), because there were a lot of rallies of between 10 and 20%, although the trend continued down. If we can consider 7400 to be a temporary low, which is a maybe, then a 15% rally would take us to 8510. I think too many people forget that even in a bear market, you can have some very spirited rallies. Regards. Clay.

To: donald sew who wrote (51699)	9/7/1998 3:00:00 PM
From: Gersh Avery	Respond to of 58727

Donald .. the gain in the webs show the drop in the value of the dollar. Try to think of it as if you were in Japan or Germany and look at the US to see if the US would be a class buy now .. Gersh

To: donald sew who wrote (51699)	9/7/1998 5:55:00 PM
From: MonsieurGonzo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

Donald; RE:" international markets " Thanks so much for taking the time and trouble to run these data through your black-box, Donald - I really appreciate it, and there are many other folks here that probably do, too. The S&P Futures traders are looking at the currency futures for cues; and the BondPits are looking at the equity markets for their cues - so markets are essentially focused on kapital itself. Is it possible for you to run JY98Z - Japanese Yen Futures or DM98Z - German Mark Futures through your analytical routine, Donald ? If you do not have these data readily available, let the thread know, as I'm sure someone here can arrange for you to have whatever resources you need. -Steve