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Strategies & Market Trends : Bill Fleckenstein, the BEAR! Is he finally right? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jack Clarke who wrote (135)	9/7/1998 2:15:00 PM
From: edward miller	Respond to of 259

At this point I'm not in a hurry to buy much. I noticed that gold and oil rallied strongly Thursday and Friday, but reading about the speculators' need to unwind positions to cover their HK losses and after thinking about it this weekend I am not sure these issues will sustain a rally for too long. Time will tell. I do have a small ABX position and I wish I had bought a little of the oil services, just in case the bottom is here. For next week I will wait for a retest of the lows. Now if oils and gold show a bottom that sticks, this can not be good for those stocks that rely on very low inflation for their high valuations. Oil strength is inflationary. Gold strength implies that investors are seeking alternatives to Wall Street. I also believe (in spite of Bill Fleckenstein's view) that some tech issues are nearly priced for bankruptcy. That will happen to some if we go into a recession, but I think there are some who will survive anyway and are at or near bottoms. Of course, that is not to say I think they are guaranteed to recover quickly.