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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Big Bucks who wrote (23917)	9/7/1998 10:37:00 PM
From: Tony Viola	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

BB, Re your comments on Intel, my comments, FWIW. "but looking at earnings potential going forward and significant pressure from the competition going into XMAS and the margin decrease quarter-to-quarter I don't see much upside potential as downside risk." What competition? The consensus is that Intel's two new Celerons, the 300A and 333, are real burners and will take back from AMD (the only real competition they have at the low end) a lot of what AMD had gained regarding market share. Re margins, the new Celerons will supplant the last of the PMMX's, at higher margins, but at the same time, they may eat into some PII sales. However, it has been estimated that if the new server chips named Xeon sell at the rate of one per 30 Celerons, margins will still increase. Assume that corporations aren't expanding and buying significant numbers of new computers," Where'd you get this? Corporations upgrade computers at a pretty steady rate over time. There have been no published reports that I have seen indicating otherwise. Now, Y2K is starting to add a bubble to that, as many companies will upgrade, rather than worry about Y2K problems. 486 and below are not Y2K compliant and generally considered not worth the time it takes to even think about a purchase order. You'd be surprised how many 486 based cpu's there are in corporations. Why don't companies wait 'til 1999 to upgrade Y2K out of their worries? Consider a spreadsheet or milestone schedule with dates beyond 1/1/00. then INTC will show lower earnings until an upturn in the economy indicates that the growth cycle has started again. My guess, 2000. Oh, really. Why have all the analysts that have come forward, except Kurlak, said they see a strong 2H98 for Intel and have a target on the stock of generally about a hundred? Speaking of Kurlak, he's about 50 - 50 calling Intel. He's made as many blunders, in both directions, as he has made right calls. It's just that the clueless who can't do their own research follow him like lemmings. This time he's going to be dead wrong. So what, he's been dead wrong about half the time anyway. Finally, and, I know, this is a lot about a non-AMAT stock on the AMAT thread, Intel's top executives have come out several times about 2H being strong, both in terms of revenues and earnings. Intel is a very conservative company, almost to a fault, when predicting the future. If they say it's good, it's practically in the bag. Tony