Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jack Park who wrote (5587)	9/7/1998 6:05:00 PM
From: Julius Wong	Respond to of 18928

Jack: My back tests indicated the number (or percentage) of strong funds is a very reliable and stable indicator for sector funds. It worked better than more complex indicators. Also I don't count the gold (FSAGX) and metal (FDPMX) funds. These funds only move with gold prices. I looked at good long-term funds and I found there are two groups, one group has relatively low fractal dimensions, the other group has relatively high fractal dimensions. The funds having average fractal dimensions are not good long-term funds! On using different indicators: In OmniTrader, there are built-in 'profiles' for Trending and Trading (in a channel) stocks. Each profile calculates only the pre-selected indicators. The user should put the right stocks into each profile. Some OmniTrader users don't follow this and they complain about the poor results. Julius

To: Jack Park who wrote (5587)	9/8/1998 1:48:00 PM
From: OldAIMGuy	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 18928

Hi Jack and Julius, My Best/Worst indicator is, in a way, similar to the idea of looking at how many funds are way up or way "over-sold". There's 41 stocks in each of the best and worst performers lists in Value Line each week. I use their relative rise and fall to determine market speculation. For the last few weeks there's been a big decrease in speculation as measured this way. The bad boys are much worse than the good boys are good! The biggest problem with this particular indicator has been that periods of speculation can last a very long time. So judging the "time to bail out" is still not clear. In fact not much of the Idiot Wave has been designed to give such a signal. Rather, it's been designed to give a relative risk reading. What's been clearer for this indicator is the "over-sold" readings. When the B/W index goes to negative values, it is usually a good short term indicator of "over-sold" condition. Market rallies like the one at the beginning of this year were nicely foreseen by the B/W index. I expect that the Value Line data for this week will confirm this condition once again. In contrast to the long periods of high speculative activity, the time spent "over-sold" is extremely short. Best regards, Tom