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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Phoenix who wrote (53825)	9/8/1998 11:35:00 AM
From: djane	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

TSC/Petrie. 10 Things to Watch in Tech: Networking thestreet.com By Kevin Petrie Staff Reporter 9/8/98 7:50 AM ET Networking is a protean business these days. Giants like Lucent (LU:NYSE) and Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq) are expanding their empires while others like Ciena (CIEN:Nasdaq) are facing dark times and still others like Ascend (ASND:Nasdaq) are turning around. Meanwhile, bigger tectonic plates are shifting. Network suppliers are doing more of their business with Internet service providers (ISPs) and phone carriers and less with the corporate world. Patrick Houghton at Wheat First Union expects networkers' revenues in the sector from ISPs and carriers to grow by as much as 100% this year. Corporate sales will only grow by about 15% to 20%, which is down from a 50% growth rate in 1996. To keep tabs on who's doing what, here are 10 events in coming months that could shed some light on these changes. Early September: Ciena Quarterly Earnings That's right, by Sept. 15, Ciena will report numbers for its much-awaited fiscal third quarter. On Aug. 14, the supplier of optical network products warned profits would come in between 13 cents and 15 cents per share, down from 34 cents per share a year ago. With a shareholder vote on the Ciena-Tellabs (TLAB:Nasdaq) merger pushed back until mid-November, a full disclosure is eagerly awaited. Ciena must report its numbers before Sept. 15, although as late as last week, a spokesman said no final date had been set. Ciena and Tellabs also intend to file amended merger documents with the Securities and Exchange Commission, likely this week. Sept. 14 to 18: NationsBanc Montgomery Securities Conference Money managers will try to get the skinny from executives of networking companies. A shaky Nasdaq and tattered tech portfolios have made investors a little peckish for good news. Cisco and Lucent present Sept. 14, while Ascend holds court Friday Sept. 18. Kenny Loggins and Don Henley pitch in with the evening entertainment, which could lead to investor unease even if the presentations don't. Oct. 1: Lucent Gets Green Light for Big Acquisitions Mark this Thursday: NBC promises a fun-packed night, including a great Friends episode. And, oh yeah, this is also the day Lucent can use its gold-plated stock to make big acquisitions. Since being spun off by AT&T (T:NYSE) on Sept. 30, 1996, Lucent has already gobbled several smaller companies without pooling-of-interest accounting. But after Oct.1, Lucent can use pooling-of-interest mergers, which are much gentler on the balance sheet. Expect merger activity. Oct. 21 to 23: NetWorld+Interop 98.0 Forget the blizzard of press releases from this Atlanta convention. Focus on the start-ups like Juniper Networks, Avici and the Paul Allen-backed Nexabit, which build ultra-fast routing products for the Internet. David Passmore, president of the consulting firm NetReference, likens Interop to a "coming-out party" for these takeover targets. (An Avici spokeswoman said its goal is an IPO, but wouldn't rule out being acquired. Nexabit declined to talk, and Juniper couldn't be reached for comment.) These youngsters are no idle bet. Juniper, owned in part by Qwest (QWST:Nasdaq) mastermind Phil Anschutz, is seen by Passmore as a potential challenge for Cisco. Oct. 19 to 23: Lucent Quarterly Earnings Lucent doubled its net income to 32 cents per share in the third fiscal quarter ended June 30 compared with the year-ago period. This time First Call expects 38 cents per share. To maintain its strong growth curve, Lucent is working to expand beyond the core telephone business. Look for Lucent to articulate further its attack on the Internet, which might just involve a freshly announced deal. Oct. 8 to 15: Ascend Quarterly Earnings One year ago, it was ugly. Ascend had fumbled a product upgrade and disappointed Wall Street with earnings. But its newly acquired Cascade unit came to the rescue that winter, selling bushels of its switches to telephone carriers. Cascade has carried Ascend's comeback, helping double Ascend's stock in the first half of the year. And despite its stock slump since July, some analysts see another recovery. Al Tobia with Montgomery, who says Ascend's core products now are selling robustly along with Cascade's, sees a profit of 31 cents per share, up from 20 cents one year earlier. (Montgomery has had no underwriting relationship with Ascend and Cascade.) Early November: Uniphase Quarterly Earnings Uniphase (UNPH:Nasdaq) furnishes Ciena and other optical suppliers with critical components for the emerging business of "wavelength division multiplexing." Ciena has suffered from order delays and price competition. Uniphase so far is going strong. Will it last? This report should tell. First Call predicts earnings of 24 cents per share in the September period, compared with 17 cents a year ago. Nov. 4: Cisco Quarterly Earnings Analysts expect the premier Internet builder to notch another three months of consistent revenue and profit growth. CEO John Chambers is likely to field numerous queries from analysts about how long Cisco's dominance can last and hopes for Internet telephony. Mid-November: Tellabs and Ciena Shareholder Meetings Shareholders of both companies finally vote on the merger and give closure to a painful saga for investors. After postponing the meetings twice, Tellabs and Ciena can decide whether a merger is in the cards. Ciena's loss of AT&T's business damaged its appeal considerably. Even after Tellabs reduced its offer, many investors are worried. Late November/Early December: Market Share Data from Dell'Oro Group Dell'Oro is regarded as the most reliable source of data-networking market figures. This will let investors determine which companies are gaining market share and in which sectors.