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Non-Tech : Invest / LTD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lucretius who wrote (2625)	9/7/1998 9:41:00 PM
From: Snowshoe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14427

LT, >>The DOW was less than 3000 in 1990 and less than 1000 in 1982, would a visit to those levels be the end of the world??? I'm afraid you're blowing this all out of proportion. Noble drilling visited $12 down from a high of $37, did the world end cause NE dropped almost 70%???<< Huh? It's quite common for individual stocks, especially cyclicals like NE, to have 75-90% drops. Drops of that magnitude in the major averages I associate with the 1930's, or the great financial panics of the 19th century. I find it astounding that you are forecasting a drop to DOW 1,000-2,000 without seriously considering and commenting on the economic consequences of such a profound market collapse. The current meltdown of Asian emerging markets has indeed been accompanied by severe depression conditions. You do not seem to be expecting such severe economic effects here. Are you perhaps anticipating something more like the long stagnation in Japan? LT, you've had some good bearish calls, but a 20% correction like the recent DOW decline is historically pretty routine. Your calls for a drops to DOW 4,000 and 1,000-2,000 seem like much more of a stretch. I'm just trying to get a better handle on your reasoning. BTW, my question about burying gold coins was meant in jest. I am just trying to draw you out here a little to see where you really stand. -Greg