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To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (6646)9/8/1998 9:46:00 AM
From: Kory  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 8002
 
Skeeter,

I don't understand your assumption that a bunch more money must have been invested in the market at it's height than at DOW 3000 or even 6000.

Market prices are dictated by the last trade. Other than when a company IPO's, trades of one share (small money) can drive the entire market much higher or much lower. You assume that the market rise was purely driven by increased demand and more money in, not by reluctance to sell and less money out.

I will grant you that demand and money DID increase as it is nearly impossible for the broad market to lack sellers, as there are always permanent sellers in the market who need to be satisfied to keep the market moving higher. But just because the average unit price increases, it doesn't absolutely mean that total dollars must necessarily increase.

A comparison: The market for Picasso's has gone way up, but few are ever traded. Even when none are traded, the "market" for Picasso's can go up as people "say" they are willing to pay more and more. No money has changed hands, yet the market would place a higher value on the Picasso. Same thing happens with your home, or real estate in general.

Regarding the possibility of DOW 3000-3500. If this happens, the economy will likely be near depression and any investment you make is suspect. Just ask the people in Russia what a Ruble, a government bond, or a share of Lukoil is worth.

Kory