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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (65)	9/8/1998 1:23:00 PM
From: Cymeed	Respond to of 10694

Thank you for your advices. (eom)

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (65)	9/8/1998 3:03:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10694

Sun, paydirt! [edited] aaa bonds since 1919 monthly... bog.frb.fed.us aaa bonds since 1983 daily bog.frb.fed.us aaa bonds weekly since 1962 weekly bog.frb.fed.us 10 year treasury since 1953 monthly bog.frb.fed.us ALL historical files can be downloaded here (1.5MB zipped) bog.frb.fed.us GM

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (65)	1/11/1999 2:38:00 PM
From: Cymeed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10694

Referring to your following comments early on this thread, do you still maintain the opinion that interest rate cut has little to do with stock price ? I mean everybody on Wall Street knows that earnings' growth for 1999 is very limited or even negative growth, yet stock price has been powered to new highs after the significant interest rate cut by the Fed. By the way, what's your take of the market direction from this point on. Your further comments will be appreciated. << Ok I grant you that it is more efficient for companies to operate in a low interest rate environment than a high interest one, if all things are equal. The important thing is the context in which the interest rates operate. If a good chunk of the world is in a 1930 style depression and as such cannot buy from KO, AMAT, HWP, ... then the interest rates can go to zero for all that matters and HWP still will not have any earnings power (hence the high PE scenario of Nikkei that you described) and as such its stock will fall. If there are 26 memory makers out there but the world needs only 4 or 5 of them, all the IMF funding in the world will not save them (in fact it will prolong the suffering). >> << My point being that if the cut in the interest rates gives rise to enough earning power for the companies to make them attractive relative to the bond yields, then the rally is justified. Otherwise, I should use the opportunity to raise cash while I can. >>