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To: Matt Black who wrote (5975)9/8/1998 1:24:00 PM
From: Money Mood  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 7111
 
I just got the same number and would like to be proved wrong! This calculation works for EPS only? i.e. assuming that all margins and operating costs remain yhe same. It's got to be something wrong with this number! Otherwise ... ANd the share price is still falling and may retest 11 1/2 recent bottom!

I will listen to the CC replay very attentively.

Chaz, thanks for the phone and res#!



To: Matt Black who wrote (5975)9/8/1998 1:38:00 PM
From: chaz  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 7111
 
Forget it Matt. The correct statement was that 60 to 70% of their business (sales) comes from the 2nd half, not the 4th Qtr.

I've played with the correct numbers. Here's the drill.

If 60%, then Q4 will be 35% of the year, and about $50 mil.
If 70%, then Q4 will be 51% on the year, and about $100 mil.
Last year, Q4 was 45% on the year, which if repeated, would make this year about $76.95.

It all sounds great, but the P/E is now below 6.




To: Matt Black who wrote (5975)9/8/1998 2:39:00 PM
From: Wayne  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 7111
 
Matt,
FWIW, not that I am voting for or against 65% in 2nd half.

First half of years rev. = $58,223,000
* $58,.223,000 = 35%
* second half = 65% = X
* Q4 = X - $34,829,000 (Q3 rev.)

Solve for X:
* $58,223,000/ 35%
* X / 65%

so: $58,223,000 times 65% divided by 35% = X = second half = $108,128,000

Solve for Q4:
* $108,128,000 - $34,829,000 (Q3 rev.) = $73,299,000 in rev. left for Q4

Top down:
* Gross margins should be higher due to more ODM work in this Q.
* Op. Exp. as a % of rev. less U-tel cost that won't be in Q4
or break it out even further (by SG&A, R&D, etc.)
* Other income added in
* Income tax close to same rate as Q3
* etc. etc.
* 19,600,000 common shares (maybe another million buy back by end of Q4).

Matt, 1.43 eps plus Q4 using the above supports your $2.56 as a ball park, IMO. I missed my numbers on Q3 by U-tel and Girl tech, but my revenues were off as well. Sounds like some of it may have been inventory for Q4. Anyway, it sounded very clear that Q4 is 560,000 units per week plus inventory with higher margins.

BUT, that is 65%. Look at 60% and 70% as well.

Now that I've missed one, I think I will pass on any hard estimate for Q4. CC was very clear IMO, so with 3 of 4 quarters behind us, the math isn't to hard.

I'm fired !!! You SOB, you can't do that to me... Yes I can, I'm fired!!! Ya, well I can't fire me, I QUIT!! Take that!