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To: steve susko who wrote (3501)	9/9/1998 5:55:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Respond to of 44573

Steve, >>What are u basing your prediction on? T.A. 1) Elliotte wave count from the top 2) Moving averages 3) Comparisons with previous crashes. 4) General market read. My underlying assumption is that the stock market went too high for a correction. See the early posts on the Millennium Crash thread from 8/97. I've been waiting for a crash for over a year. When the main indices crossed the 200 dma down for the 1st time since '94 (the SPX on 8/27/98, the 13 dma on the SPX on 9/2/98) it was confirmed that the bull market is over. IMO, talking about new highs (AJC) by the end of the year is ludicrous. 1) Elliotte wave count from the top suggests we've completed the short term correction 2 of 3 of 1. Message 5699549 2) Moving averages- IMO the crash phase will be over once we close the 13 dma, currently at 1031, and by the close today anywhere between 1028 to 1018. So if we close today at SPX 1030 or higher, scrap my scenario. 3) Comparing to other crashes - The 1st leg down from the top to 8/14 was bigger in percentage loss then '29. It was the biggest loss from the top recorded in this century. This time the crash is pacing at a quicker step (around 30% faster) then '29. 4) General- MFs are still at minimal cash holdings (4.5%) and did not liquidate much from the top (they held 4.3% cash)- they'll be forced to sell when redemptions catch on. Earnings outlook - A couple of months back every bullish talking head were talking about how 2nd Q earnings were slow, but the second half of the year will show big improvement. Now what? BTW- GLOBEX is all over the place, from -20 to -5 in minutes. Today is going to be a very important day IMO, confirming or denying my scenario. ATG