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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: djane who wrote (7658)	9/8/1998 7:54:00 PM
From: MGV	Respond to of 22640

Does this make any sense? Not on a fundamental basis (assuming the earnings are not poor). It is sentiment and liquidity driven right now. Any ideas on what will be the catalyst to unlock the inherent severe undervaluation in TBR's shares? Time and more certainty that GOB will reduce currency risk and debt overhang (and thereby increase macro-growth rates) by attacking spending and institutionalized recurring cash drains such as SS aggressively and convincingly, not just with palliatives, high rates included, which are "1 step forward, two steps backward" Are all the buyers waiting until the 9/15/98 listing of the 12 companies, 10/4/98 election, or just until after October is over because all Octobers are supposedly bad? Given that fundamentals are secondary (at best) to other factors listed above, I don't see why the multiple listings will impact the price. All Brazilian stocks are down, the good as well as the less good. In my view October is more significant because it is election month and should eliminate some of the uncertainty that is an albatross on TBR now. Does rational analysis matter anymore or is current investing based only on sentiment, momentum and emotion? See the answer about "time" above. In short, fundamentals will matter. Because of the above factors, we are watching a grossly inefficient market place values on TBR and Brazil. The good news is that inefficiency creates outstanding value opportunities to exploit. The bad news is that it is discomforting and psychologically onerous to watch a market value something contrary to your view and wealth over the short term. By the way djane your recap is right on. Everyone of those events should be significant.

To: djane who wrote (7658)	9/8/1998 9:10:00 PM
From: Jay8088	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

I would put it more simply. It was just a short covering rally. By monday next week (if not earlier) the market would resume its decline.

To: djane who wrote (7658)	9/9/1998 2:59:00 AM
From: djane	Read Replies (9) \| Respond to of 22640

$2.7B Varig order from Boeing [Hey, I thought Brazil was bankrupt. Where did that $2.7B come from? Oh, I forgot, there are actually people there flying, making phone calls and living their lives. Well, back to your regularly schedule panic by international capital. Who said that people with money are smart anyway?] Varig Becomes First in Latin America to Order Boeing 777 PR Newswire - September 08, 1998 11:03 FARNBOROUGH, England, Sept. 8 /PRNewswire/ -- VARIG, the largest airline in Latin America, announced an agreement to purchase 39 Boeing jetliners, Boeing Commercial Airplane Group confirmed today. Demonstrating a bold vision for the future, VARIG becomes the first carrier in Latin America to order the 777. VARIG has ordered four 777s, 10 Next-Generation 737-800s, four 737-700s and six extended-range 767-300ERs. In addition, VARIG will place options for four 777-200s and 11 737-700s. The approximate value of the order, including options, is $2.7 billion. "We worked very hard with Boeing to re-evaluate our fleet needs in order to better serve our flying customers," said VARIG president and chief executive officer Fernando Pinto. "We have been operating Boeing aircraft for many years, and we look forward to continuing our partnership into the future. The opportunity to acquire the Boeing 777 and the Next-Generation 737 will reinforce our position as a market leader into the next century." "We're delighted that VARIG is the first airline in Latin America to order the 777," said Harry Stonecipher, president, chief operating officer and acting chief financial officer - The Boeing Company. "VARIG's vision demonstrates its commitment to long-term profitable growth. We're confident these airplanes will meet VARIG's needs well into the next century." The Boeing 737 is operated by 280 customers in more than 100 countries, and continues to be the best-selling jetliner in commercial aviation history. More than 800 737s are in the air at all times, with one taking off every six seconds. The Next-Generation 737s include a newly designed larger wing, new systems and avionics, a redesigned passenger cabin, higher cruise speed, greater range and new engines. Boeing has received more than 1,000 orders for the best-selling Next-Generation 737 family, which includes the 737-600/ -700/ -800/ -900 models. The 777-200 is a long-range widebody twinjet with a seating capacity of 305-328 passengers in three classes. The 777 is the most advanced jetliner in production today, featuring fly-by-wire technology and advanced, digitally controlled engines, offering passengers an unmatched level of comfort and speed. The 767-300ER is the most popular wide-body twinjet operating in its class. The 767's superior economics and long-range flexibility allows airlines to offer more frequent trips to international destinations. VARIG and its subsidiaries, Rio Sul and Nordeste, currently operate more than 100 Boeing jetliners. SOURCE Boeing Commercial Airplane Group /CONTACT: Fernando Vivanco, 425-234-4181, Seattle, or Mark Hooper, 44-(0)1252-381-390, Farnborough, both for Boeing/ /Company News On-Call: prnewswire.com or fax, 800-758-5804, ext. 109119/ /Web site: boeing.com /Web site: boeingmedia.com (BA) CO: Boeing Commercial Airplane Group; Varig ST: Washington, England IN: AIR SU: Headlines Previous Story Next Story BA %AIR V%PRN P%PRN