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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Trader who wrote (3589)	9/9/1998 12:21:00 PM
From: Stoctrash	Respond to of 44573

Here is some ammo for the bullish camp; I'm still on the sidelines..though the P*Stop had a buy from yesterday. I'm thinking of shorting today since we have no follow through today. Should have had some Kahoonas and done it yesterday... Consider an 11 day period in which the following occur: 1: The S&P 500 moves more than 5% (in either direction) two times during this period. 2: The S&P 500 declines three days in a row during this period. Q: Have these two noteable features of the stock market action over last two weeks ever been seen before? A: Yes. In fact, on the very next day, the S&P 500 rallies an average of 3% in 11 of 13 past occurrences. 3 weeks later the market is nearly 7% higher in 10 of 13 past occurrences. Two things of interest. First, if this query has predictive power, an extensive back up in bond yields is possible. Second, if the stock market does move another 7% higher that puts the S&P right back at the July high just in time for October. Let variable values: theSec = SPX Date Day 1day 3week 11/14/1929 Thu 5.509 13.669 09/24/1931 Thu 2.247 -5.899 09/14/1932 Wed 4.218 0.544 10/26/1932 Wed 0.871 4.499 11/18/1932 Fri 1.262 -0.701 06/19/1933 Mon 1.938 15.504 07/25/1933 Tue 2.616 1.550 11/19/1937 Fri 0.285 5.614 03/31/1938 Thu 4.824 19.529 05/23/1940 Thu -0.435 5.435 09/12/1946 Thu 1.931 -0.266 10/20/1987 Tue 9.099 0.912 10/28/1997 Tue -0.292 1.777 09/08/1998 Tue NaN NaN Avg 2.621 4.782 AvgPos 3.164 6.903 AvgNeg -0.363 -2.289 PctPos 84.615 76.923 PctNeg 15.385 23.077 Maximum 9.099 19.529 Minimum -0.435 -5.899 StdDev 2.692 7.273 ZStat 0.974 0.658 Variance 7.248 52.889 14 Occurrences

To: Tom Trader who wrote (3589)	9/9/1998 12:23:00 PM
From: Leland Charon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 44573

TT, A lot of my trades are based off of S and R for the Dow. I will often buy puts when the Dow tops out at R and buy calls when it bounces on support. This allows me to buy when the premiums are very low. It actually works pretty well because it is somewhat backwards from what most people do. Yesterday I entered on a pullback because I felt the close would be very positive. Today I missed the entry I wanted but still entered when the market looked weak. A lot of what I do is considered tape reading. I also daytrade stocks so I really get a feel for the overall market. Leland