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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (23995)	9/9/1998 8:25:00 PM
From: akidron	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

I so agree about the relationshisp of Latin America to the US, and Brazil in particular being the Achillies heel of US expansion. That is why I'm surprised you're buying now. Amoung the shoes that have yet to drop are the actual writeoffs of bad loans in Japan, the communist takeover (however fleeting) in russia, rescheduling and maybe renenegotiation (write-off) of debt in brazil venezuela argentina trinidad mexico poland hungrey and more in sea etc, and as the economy goes so will boy billy. IMO we've just begun... yesterday's 380 point binge just about ensured we're going down... It took the upside away.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (23995)	9/9/1998 9:18:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Respond to of 70976

Jake, Very profound statement/thought process, Excellent!!! Political uncertainty and paralysis is going to last for the rest of this President's term. Latin America, which is very dependant on global capital flows (because they don't save, so any business needing capital, or government financing a deficit, goes to Citicorp), is about to see credit dry up, interest rates soar, capital spending halt, and governments forced to slash budgets just as their economies' start contracting. And the IMF is out of money and out of credibility. What Malaysia was for Japan, and Russia is for Germany, Brazil will be for us. It's our turn. I fear you, Aki, Teri and I are correct in our bearish stances. Aki stated the "D" word, and I (in some private messages) projected a recession in '99-2k brought on by global economic chaos, loan defaults, imbalance of trade and currency devaluations. I expect that European and South American economies will be the next crisis points. South America is in trouble with no means of economic recovery available, especially with deflation and a world wide oil glut, depressing their income potential. The E.U. is suppose to occur in '99, and that will bring enough problems to the front to severely disrupt any growth that was projected in European economies. Oh yea, maybe I'm just more risk averse/cautious/reserved (chicken) than you!? <VBG> Just my opinion, BB