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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (27150)	9/10/1998 4:30:00 AM
From: Philipp	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

The next two days could be a bit of a replay of what happened two weeks ago. Tuesday's irrational interest-rate-hype, last-gasp rally seems to be failing. Should be clear to everybody by the end of today and then people will be looking for an exit if they can find one. By the way, I have the impression (not scientific) that only a small number of "average" investors have been sucked into one of these rallies. It seems to me that the more common position is a wait-and-see attitude combined with the objective of risk minimization. So I don't think that they will bail out the big guys again like last October. A lot of dark clouds on the horizon: Of course, Clinton. We can expect leaks about some of the most substantial accusations in the report in the next few days and serious impeachment talk all week-end. A Clinton crash? He would deserve it. Europe: a lot of recession talk all of a sudden, UK and now even Germany (a bit exaggerated though). Japan, Hong Kong: No help here. Russia: the big wild card. Still an eerie silence since Monday. The formation of a new government (the most likely possibility) is potentially short-term positive (intermediate-term still hopeless). The dissolution of the Duma would lead to anarchy and favor a military coup. General Lebed has been posturing again (note: a takeover by him might well have popular support!). US: some more early profit warnings by important companies to bring home what this downturn is really all about: a correction of the irrational profit growth expectations and the realization that we are already in a profit recession. Good trading to all, Phil