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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (3821)	9/10/1998 1:01:00 PM
From: Stoctrash	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 44573

More stats to back anyones stance: Q: What happens when a one-day slide in the Dow of more than 1.5% seems to keep an intermediate term down trend intact despite a recent rally? A: The next day, there is a 71% percent chance of a slide in the Dow of more than 2%, on average. However, that slide has historically been a buy because the Dow is up more than 4%, on average, (in 12 of 14 occurrences)two values later. Let variable values: theSec = DJIA_ACT Date Day 1 1_9 02/24/1920 Tue -3.227 8.224 11/17/1930 Mon 1.618 1.123 07/22/1931 Wed 0.077 -4.298 10/13/1931 Tue -2.963 9.355 06/07/1932 Tue -4.782 5.752 10/20/1932 Thu -5.264 -4.065 07/31/1933 Mon 2.126 5.146 10/26/1933 Thu 1.304 3.411 05/22/1934 Tue -0.801 1.938 05/07/1936 Thu -0.184 1.409 04/06/1938 Wed -0.809 8.982 09/18/1946 Wed -2.307 3.814 09/09/1974 Mon -0.720 1.913 11/03/1987 Tue -0.929 0.196 09/09/1998 Wed NaN NaN Avg -1.204 3.064 AvgPos 1.281 4.272 AvgNeg -2.198 -4.181 PctPos 28.571 85.714 PctNeg 71.429 14.286 Maximum 2.126 9.355 Minimum -5.264 -4.298 StdDev 2.259 4.259 ZStat -0.533 0.720 Variance 5.103 18.140