Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Did Slick Boink Monica? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: N who wrote (19052)	9/11/1998 12:37:00 PM
From: Henry Volquardsen	Respond to of 20981

excellent article

To: N who wrote (19052)	9/11/1998 1:48:00 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 20981

Troubles for the Democrats By David S. Broder Friday, September 11, 1998; Page A31 This week brought some good news and some bad news for Dick Gephardt, the Democratic leader of the House. The good news -- in which the whole country shared -- was that Mark McGwire of his hometown St. Louis Cardinals broke the most famous record in sports by hitting his 62nd home run of the season. The bad news was that events seem to be conspiring once again to keep Gephardt from fulfilling his ambition to become speaker of the House. Even as the long-awaited report from independent counsel Kenneth Starr reached Capitol Hill on its way to the public, Clinton's own Justice Department announced it has begun formal inquiries that could lead to the appointment of a new independent counsel to probe the 1996 campaign fund-raising activities of the president. Attorney General Janet Reno had already ordered similar investigations of Vice President Gore and former White House deputy chief of staff Harold Ickes. Troubles are coming in bunches for the Democrats. And the illusion that the public is indifferent to scandal in Washington -- morally anesthetized, so many said, by the health of the economy -- is also disappearing as fast as the summer suntans. On the same day that McGwire broke the record, two of the most respected pollsters in Washington, Democrat Celinda Lake and Republican Ed Goeas, delivered the latest of their "Battleground" poll analyses. It was bitter news for Gephardt and other Democrats. First, they said, their late-August telephone poll showed that concern about morals had surged to the top of voters' minds. The polling pair said that any time an issue is mentioned by as many as 5 percent of the voters in response to an open-ended question asking them to name "the number one problem" facing the country, the one "you and your family are most concerned about," it is very significant. Well, 13 percent brought up moral concerns, and another 6 percent said Clinton himself was the number one problem. By comparison, health care was mentioned by only 3 percent and Social Security by 2 percent. Mind you, this poll was taken before Sen. Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, a longtime Democratic ally of the president, put the moral dimension of the Clinton-Lewinsky case front and center in his Senate speech saying Clinton's actions were not just "inappropriate" but "immoral" and "wrong." In addition, Lake and Goeas produced the first clear public evidence supporting the suspicion that embarrassed and disgruntled Democrats might register their dismay by staying home in droves come Election Day. This fear has been lurking in the minds of many Democrats, especially those old enough to remember what happened to the Republicans in the midterm elections of 1974, the year the Watergate saga ended with the forced resignation of Richard Nixon. Democratic turnout that November fell 2 percent below the level of 1970. But Republican turnout declined 5 percent. And the Republicans lost 49 seats in the House and four in the Senate. This is what Lake, the Democratic pollster, said of the current situation: "Democratic voters, demoralized by President Clinton's problems and seeing little incentive to vote for politicians and a system teetering on the brink of moral bankruptcy, may choose to stay home on Nov. 3, while Republicans may turn out at average or higher than average levels to help cure the moral ills of politics." Goeas, the Republican pollster, said he could foresee a 15- or 20-seat gain for the GOP in the House and four to six seats in the Senate. For Gephardt to be speaker, Democrats would have to gain 11 seats. The turnout problem also could affect the single most important contest in the country, the California governorship race. State Attorney General Dan Lungren, the Republican, has been trailing Democratic Lt. Gov. Gray Davis by as much as 12 points in public polls. But Lungren's pollster, Dick Dresner, says the race is tighter than these polls indicate. The reason: turnout. On Aug. 10, Dresner's polling found equal interest in the election by Democrats and Republicans. Three weeks later, Republicans were expressing 11 percent greater interest in voting than Democrats. And among the high-interest voters, Lungren trailed Davis by a statistically insignificant 2 points. Why the change? I asked. "I attribute it to President Clinton," Dresner said. "People concerned about his moral behavior will vote, and Democrats are staying home."