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Non-Tech : Doc Stone's Bierstube und Trading Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: M. Frank Greiffenstein who wrote (392)	9/10/1998 9:48:00 PM
From: wolfdog2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 638

Shorting AMAT Doc, I think you're a little late on this one. Everything that you say is true. But it's well known on theStreet. If I recall correctly, in their last earning's report, they showed that they weren't doing as poorly as people thought they might. Sorry not to be more specific, but this one is just one the periphery of my radar screen. I don't own it, but I wouldn't short it here either. AMAT meets all the qualifications for a washed out stock. Earnings estimates have been lowered, the stock is more than 50% off its yearly high and analysts had lowered their ratings on the stock. Its best to short before the analysts have lowered their ratings. Also please note that the stock was up a 1/16th today. Not much but on a huge down day, not bad either. In addition I believe that at least one influential analyst recently turned positive on the stock.

To: M. Frank Greiffenstein who wrote (392)	9/10/1998 10:42:00 PM
From: CuttotheCore	Respond to of 638

I held ters too long, but managed to get out at 27, from 39 (now 18). It began my education on the semi-equip. Shorted nvls at 37 just prior to recent run to 43, I got out at 37 1/2. See that nvls is now 24, new low. I should have used a stop on ters, but didn't, and was 7 days early on nvls. Amat is leader of this group, last down, falls the least. Most have rallied and I suspect that they will have a good morning on the intc news, as it is still the key to their health, even if one step removed. The 10 day ma is at 25 1/8 and tuesday's close and Wed. open were at 25.5. If it fails to hold above the 25.5, then I would think the short has potential. IMO it is like a momentum play after a breakout in the bull days. I think its real low is here but it has a good chance, in this mkt to fall thru support and make new lows. Keep in mind that these tech plays are at the heart of the bull. I don't have the capital for the play, but think that it is a good bear move. My brother raises cattle here on the farm we live on, herd about a 100 cows. Put three bulls with the herd this year. Biggest, strongest breeds early, others are always near the cow, but defer to the Bull. Then one day the Bull is lame, beat, broken and you put him out because he is done. The second biggest boy is now the Bull. He has his time, always holding the young bull at bay, even tho the young bull follows every single cow, but when their time comes that Bull shows up. His time is short, after all he followed the big Bull for weeks. Then its the young bull's time. He's a lot smaller, lot to learn, but he is the Bull and he grows into the occupation real fast and he stays strong for a longer time than the other two put together. Doesn't have to deal with as many cows but for longer period of time and more drawn out he must carry the field. Most amazing thing I have seen is how fast and well the young bull develops. Question is there a young bull developing or did they just run out of Bulls? Either way I wouldn't dwell on that amat short overly long and still think the best play is to pick that bottom and get the rebound on the good stocks. So you can ride it down and if quick ride it back, but don't hold either way too long, certainly not long enough to answer my question? Then again that starts to make it interesting and possibly rewarding ($?) again. Good luck. rdk