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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JPR who wrote (64925)	9/13/1998 7:04:00 PM
From: Raymund W	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Hello JPR: Sorry it took so long to respond; I was out camping (literally). True, my comment was a bit of a "knee-jerk reaction," but I still just can't see Dell growing as fast in the next 7-10 years as in the past. It's already around the market cap of GM. You suggested that Dell will grow a minimum of 160 times as large within the next decade, or at least the stock price will. It's possible that the stock price could grow faster percentwise than the market cap, if the company is buying back a ton of shares, but I don't think Dell will earn enough money (by a long shot) to buy back enough (billions upon billions of dollars' worth). Even if Dell attains more market share, which it looks like it will, I believe that computer prices are quickly going to sink to a level that would surprise many today, and computers will be commodities. Even now, you can get a fine system, only slightly slower than Dell's deluxe, for about $800., and it should be under $500. by next year. The profits will decrease drastically per system sold in the next few years. Dell is a good company and Michael is a good CEO, but I think it's a dangerous fantasy to think the same trend will continue for much longer. I just don't know when it will end; maybe it already has, maybe not. Ray