To: Gunther G. Smith who wrote (7980 ) 9/16/1998 4:21:00 PM From: Todd D. Wiener Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 14266
Returning from the depths of obscurity... Hello all! I regret not being able to participate in the fervent discussion which has taken place here over the past several weeks. I have been consumed, almost literally, by the responsibilities of my new business, TechTrends (http://www.techtrends.net). I have not abandoned THQI or SI, nor have I sold any THQ since I last mentioned it at $29 (per-split). It appears I was lucky with my timing, although THQI is still a substantial holding of mine. I am still very bullish on THQ's outlook, although I am somewhat concerned about Q4, since several games have been pushed out to 1999 or cancelled altogether. If THQ believes that Q4 will be supported adequately by the current slate of titles, then it makes sense that they pushed out a few items. But if pushouts are occurring due to development delays and related issues, we could have a problem achieving strong Q4 growth. On the other hand, I think that WCW/NWO Revenge 64 and Rugrats will be very successful, and the other titles have good potential. I did find it interesting that THQ discontinued Heliotrope after acquiring GameFX. I also think "It's about time!" that THQ announced a BASS 64 title. If Brunswick is successful, we could see a similar title for N64 in 1999. I think that THQ is slowly, but surely building a decent lineup for 1999. As this lineup becomes more robust, earnings estimates will reflect more confidence. Q1 1999 looks very strong. Q4 is looking better, but Q2 and Q3 1999 are in serious need of new releases. I'm sure that time will tell. It goes without saying that the stock is discounting many problems, many of which won't be realized. It's also obvious that the market is continuing its streak of remarkable inefficiency, with regards to small cap pricing and valuation. The toy stocks, and the video game stocks (to a lesser extent), are being priced as if they were suffering declining business. This is largely untrue, and ultimately these stocks will see fair values (which are multiples of their current prices). Unfortunately, I don't know what is going to reverse the trend away from small stocks. Undervalued stocks can become much more undervalued, especially in lousy markets. I make no guarantees on a stock's performance, but I like to think that good businesses will eventually reap profits for shareholders. If I were ERTS, MSFT, MAT, HAS or any other big toy/software company, I'd buy up a lot of small companies. Alas, I don't have a billion dollars, so I have to buy them piece by piece. An interesting wildcard could be the spinoff of Cendant's software division from CD. If this occurs, the company would be the #2 company behind ERTS. If it were to make some acquisitions in the console segment (since most of CD's titles are PC), it could rival ERTS in size and power. I can wish, can't I? THQI appears to be a tasty target for an acquisitive company. I don't know what happened to HAINESDA, as I haven't been to the AOL MF board for 6 months or more. But my absence has nothing to do with THQ, only my extremely busy schedule. Good luck to all. RedJack, Revenge and Rugrats, Todd