Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : IFMX - Investment Discussion -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: treetopflier who wrote (11862)	9/11/1998 3:00:00 PM
From: Mark Finger	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14631

>>Since my first posting re: IFMX in June it has declined in value 50%. So??? If you look at a couple of the biggest tech blue chips, there have been similar declines. Since early July, Microsoft has declined about 20%. Oracle had declined by 30% until it was rescued by the recent earnings report. Is it any wonder that a lesser stock would have a relatively larger fall? On the other hand, Informix produced another quarterly report that showed improvements in q/q sales. It showed continued and growing profitability. It signed at least one and maybe more large contracts that did not produce significant revenue in Q2 but should contribute in Q3 and forward. Where is the negative news? The only one I saw was the loss of Egghead software (and that could be categoriezed as a company in trouble and without direction and not the best of reference points). I can see downside risks for informix, but currently I believe that the current price is not a true indication. Most small to medium cap companies are down over 50% from their 52 week highs, which is exactly where IFMX is currently (this is information I had from my broker, based on certain index members a month ago). If you look at the last year for IFMX, you see that IFMX has a high just fractionally over 10, and an average of around 7 during the past year. So this current price is not that far out of line for its large peer group. I would not read that much into the current price action. Incidentally, most employees (excluding officers) should have their stock options at just a fraction over 5 from the repricing that happened very early this year. In other words, they are not that far out of the money. Q3 closes in just over 2 weeks and we should see results in about 5-6 weeks. I previously posted my points on what they should do, and I still think they will meet those numbers. If so, there should be a significant bump up (not to 8-10 because of the depressed market, but still up from here). Give them room to work.

To: treetopflier who wrote (11862)	9/12/1998 4:07:00 PM
From: johnlea	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 14631

<<What makes you so enthusiastic about a stock that may generate stable, but slim profits, pays no dividends, is no longer considered a growth stock and is an unlikely takeover candidate? >> first, let me say that i have been buying this starting at 7 right down to its recent low, so i obviously feel ifmx will improve. my reasons (right or wrong) are as follows. 1. ifmx has good technology. that still doesn't seem to be too much in dispute. 2. i personally don't believe the database market is as "mature" as some say. imho it will grow 25%+ for years to come. the world still has plenty of info not in databases, the internet is definitely creating demand for dbs, and there is no technology in site that is going to obsolete the need for databases. 3. i believe ifmx is in the 'turnaround' phase, and is past the half-way mark in this turnaround. management, and employee turnover are always part of this. the winners (ie silicon valley millionaires) will be the ifmx folks that stay and get tons of cheap options. 4. i believe ifmx will approach $billion in revenue by the end of yr 2000. this is <30% cagr from current revenue levels. 5. i believe ifmx will get their net profit margin up over 13%. this yields about 77 cents a share 2 years from now. with a 25 pe, the stock would be over $19.00 lastly, i consider the above a 'middle of the road' scenario. market conditions and ifmx mgt performance could cause this stock to fall short or surpass the $19.00 mark. however, at this price level, there appears far greater reward potential than risk. of course this is all viewed from the very special set of glasses that i where when i evaluate stocks ;-).