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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Asymmetric who wrote (2956)	9/12/1998 11:09:00 AM
From: jach	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 12623

Ciena analysis (reasonable valuation 40-50$); key advantages on optical internetworking and wave division routing no-clue analysts and most investors are just looking at the near-term anoouncements but missing the following key areas: - Ciena technology - Installed base - The actual products that are shipping and - Future optical internetrworking (going to be really really big) with optical internwrking supporting big fat optical wave pipes directly from switch routers such as 12000, data over optical will also support voice packets. This will open up data networking comapnies ssuch as csco to the voice world and in a much more competitive way; Future networks all will be pretty mcuh based on this technology such as Sprint; High-priced Voice switches, TDM and Sonet SDH Add/Drop muxes will be history - IMO, Ciena at this price is a big bargain, this mkt of optical networking will grow exponentially in the next few yrs that is like the Internet; doubling every nine months; Based on this mkt growth and ciena revenue/profit picture (including the possible deals lost from ATT and Teleport), IMO, Ciena reasonable valuation should be between 40-50$; and imo, tlab should be paying 1 share instead of 0.8 imo, key point of ATT not going with ciena is that with significant ciena dwdm installed based, csco can and will get strong hold and eat into the very high-priced voice switches and add/drops muxes from the big telecom companies; but the merging of data into optical networking will happen quickly with ciena possibly getting a large piece of action; see extracted csco and ciena news =================== Cisco and CIENA will work together to overlay switching and routing technologies directly onto optical networks, enabling service providers to build more scalable and cost-effective data services. CSCO and Ciena are working on this and will soon be marketed based on recent announcements and deals like Spint networks; Cisco and CIENA will work to enable service providers to build high-capacity IP backbones by interfacing the Cisco 12000 Gigabit Switch Router (GSR) directly to CIENA's long-haul, dense wavelength division multiplexing (DWDM) systems. The Cisco 12000 will interface with CIENA's DWDM system via synchronous optical network/synchronous digital hierarchy (SONET/SDH) OC-48c/STM-16 interfaces at 2.5 Gbps, without the need for additional intermediate network elements such as SONET terminal multiplexers. Future activities will include integration of additional platforms and interfaces, including support for asynchronous transfer mode (ATM), and the definition of new interfaces between data and optical layers to improve network flexibility and reduce equipment costs. The rapid growth of data traffic is forcing service providers to reevaluate the way they build their transmission infrastructures. The ability to directly connect data platforms with optical networking elements such as DWDM will enable service providers to cost-effectively exploit the enormous capacities of optical technologies. Leading service providers have recognized this opportunity and are building new network infrastructures specifically optimized for data. By focusing on IP switching, routing and DWDM as core infrastructure technologies, service providers will be able to build data-optimized infrastructures with capacity costs significantly less than traditional, voice-optimized, time-division multiplexing (TDM) infrastructures. "IP traffic volumes on high-speed backbones continue to double every six to nine months, with some routes already requiring multigigabit bandwidths," said Don Listwin, senior vice president of Cisco Systems' Service Provider Line of Business. "We believe that optical technologies will be key to addressing these enormous capacity requirements. Cisco and CIENA are working to bring about the rapid realization of this new networking approach and to ensure that we stay ahead of customer demands." "Carriers are quickly recognizing the benefits of bringing IP traffic directly onto DWDM transport," said Patrick Nettles, CIENA's president and chief executive officer. "After initial interoperability testing, we expect more strategic product development to naturally emerge." Cisco and CIENA are also cooperating with other leading vendors and service providers to ensure open standards for optical internetworking. In a separate announcement today, the two companies announced that they cofounded the Optical Internetworking Forum (OIF) to provide a venue in which ve