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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jach who wrote (2960)	9/12/1998 1:07:00 PM
From: Curbstone	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

To All, Until yesterday I would have classified myself as a "weak hands" shareholder. I went long on Ciena at about $34 and sold two other stocks for small losses to do it. Immediately after this the AT&T news came out and Ciena stock got hammered. Ever since then, especially in light of the recent drop in the DOW and all the bargains it created, the cold sweat from my twitching trigger-finger has been dripping on the sell button. I have been carefully reading each and every post on TLAB/CIEN as if the next one would contain the final straw of information that would make my decision final. I'm glad to say that my resolve to hold on is growing stronger every day. I believe the AT&T news was a desperate act, and the partial contract loss is just life in the fast lane. At $34 Ciena is a bargain. It doesn't matter what happens regarding TLAB. Ciena can and has stood on it's own and is certainly a $50 stock in it's own right. If TLAB walks, Cisco or someone else will snap them up in a heartbeat. The market is so volitile right now that more than likely the best place to be is cash. As far as I'm concerned, CIEN at $34 for 2 months is far better than cash. Aloha "Strong Hands" Mike

To: jach who wrote (2960)	9/12/1998 4:53:00 PM
From: jach	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

Message 5733038

To: jach who wrote (2960)	9/13/1998 10:13:00 AM
From: WONG	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 12623

I agree with you that CIEN is a leading edge with strong products and very cheap valuation because of the recent sell off. However one thing that bothers me is the ATT cancellation of their test of CIEN equipment. IF CSCO's largest carrier customer is ATT, and CSCO GSR 12000 router is being mostly tested and used with CIEN's DWDM stuff, does that mean CSCO will not be a big supplier to ATT for any next generation IP over DWDM fiber network? Does that mean Lucent with their DWDM and ASND with their ATM over DWDM( with NEC and Pirelli gears) will be big winners for the ATT account? Would CSCO be losing share to LU and ASND on the next generation network battlefield?

To: jach who wrote (2960)	9/14/1998 3:36:00 AM
From: Asymmetric	Respond to of 12623

Jach, don't write off local access just yet either. The number of additional new DS-3's being thrown around for a single company looking to get into competitive local access where I live is simply staggering - in the low 4 digits. (I can't get into it much more than that. This is not a rumored figure either.) The amount of money involved is equally staggering. In order to carry that kind of traffic, DWDM is going to end up going into a lot of places, as well as the kind of optical switches that Tellabs and Lucent will end up providing. Just as DACS are the only way to go now regarding T-1, DS-1, and subrate data interconnects - bye, bye wiring frames; so too as you've stated with optical switches/interconnects. Right now interconnecting sonet rings is very cumbersome. To interconnect the rings, the signal has to be dropped from optical to electrical, patched via coax cable, and then uplinked back to optical for retransmission. The market for optical interconnect switches is going to be huge just for this single function alone. And to confirm what you said on the data side, it's simply amazing to me to see much of this new equipment and to see the optical interfaces/and speeds (ie bandwidth) going in - for example Sonet terminals connecting optical to ATM switches, and then from there fiber-optically connecting to say a IBM AS/400 server. If you add in the the other options such as IP switching directly over fiber you can see the strategic vision of a Tellabs of selling a packaged-unified optical switch/DWDM product is going to be a huge winner, and that Birck is the one who is right here. If Tellabs shareholders are stupid enough to vote this combination down, they are cutting their own damn throats and I say to hell with them if that's how blind they are. Lucent, Alcatel, Nortel, Pirelli, Cisco, Ascend, et al. will absolutely drive them out of business because they'll be in this market niche and that's where telecommunications/ networking is going...and Tellabs and it's shortsighted shareholders will be out in he cold looking in and wondering what if...... Regards, Peter.