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Technology Stocks : TLAB info? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary Korn who wrote (3631)	9/12/1998 11:43:00 AM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7342

Gary, thanks for your interesting post. There are just a few points I want to add. The potential problem with the Coherent was the belief by many that the FTC would block the acquisition. This was a conclusion that was based on ignorance and fear, not hard data. I think that there is a gulf of difference between that acquisition and the Ciena merger. Here we have a case where material events have significantly changed the landscape. We have been bombarded with accounts of lost or deferred contracts and problems with the technology, or, if not the technology certainly the engineers supporting the AT&T evaluations. As a result, Ciena has lost a great deal of its value through a combination of lost revenues and greatly damaged credibility in the marketplace. As a result, I believe that the either the merger will go through at a greatly reduced ratio -- perhaps 0.5 or less, or it will fail altogether. I still believe that there still may be a merger-related sizable short position in TLAB and that arbs have not taken a corresponding long position in CIEN because of the extreme uncertainty surrounding the ratio. How else does one explain a TLAB drop of over 50% coming off of blowout numbers in the last quarter? TTFN, CTC