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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary Korn who wrote (2962)	9/12/1998 11:57:00 AM
From: Baldwin	Respond to of 12623

I understood Mike Birck to say (was it a quote in recent news article?) that Tellabs now in "Quiet Period." That would certainly explain the lack of comment. Also, I have a hard time believing there was any lack of due diligence. Saying that he didn't KNOW Ciena would lose the bid to Pirelli is quite different from not COUNTING on the revenues from that bid, which Birck DID state.

To: Gary Korn who wrote (2962)	9/12/1998 12:28:00 PM
From: gbh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

At .8, that is 36 for CIEN, which is about 10x sales. LU paid 8x sales for Livingston. Maybe you could argue for .75, which is more like 8x sales. Gary, forget about comparisons. TLAB's first obligation is to its shareholders. If the deal goes through in its current form, TLAB sinks to $30 and CIEN is worth $24. Shareholders will not let this happen. The deal will be voted down at the shareholders meeting in its current form. The only way this deal will happen now is at a lower multiple. In its current state, CIEN is probably worth 20-25 to TLAB. As far as another company being interested in CIEN, that is ancient history at this point. If this deals fails, CIEN may eventually be bought, but I would bet it won't be any time soon. And its stock will languish in the 10-15 area until it again proves through new wins that it is the leader in this field. gary