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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Globalstar Telecommunications Limited GSAT -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JMD who wrote (2030)	9/12/1998 6:58:00 PM
From: Bernard Levy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29987

Hi Mike: The case for, say $6: a) Dilution of current shareholders as new partners need to be recruited. b) No room left for failure for the next 5 launches (I know that the theory is that 1 failed Soyuz launch could be tolerated, but the market would certainly not tolerate it, particularly if it is one of the first 3 launches). This constraint is really dreadful, since launch failures do occur. c) The risk level for GSTRF does not make it mutual fund investment grade. d) Huge tax loss selling. e) Uncertainty regarding the entire satellite industry (Galaxy failure, Titan rocket failure, Leonid shower). f) Evidence that Bernie Schwartz is losing his touch, not so much in the wheeling and dealing area, where he is clearly one of the best (Orion acquisition, Satmex auction, buying out GSTRF's Korean partner), but on the execution side. Specifically, he seems to have an inordinate love and affection for cut rate shoddy launchers (Long March, Zenit). I would also say that his huge campaign contribution to the Dems in 96 was not so smart, since it made him (and by extension LOR, GSTRF) a prime target. I was willing to overlook this kind of reckless behavior as long as he was executing his business plan well. However, at this stage, I am really tired of always hearing LOR mentioned negatively whenever it makes it to the headlines. I do not think I would go way out on a limb if I were saying that few of the long-term LOR/GSTRF investors will be willing to cut much slack for Bernie if he stumbles again, in spite of his legendary achievements. g) Finally, the market is not rational. I do not see any reason why someone would want to buy right now, so that GSTRF will come down. Everybody will be waiting on the sidelines trying to guess how low is low. The only hope for current holders: Maurice buys all of the available stock before it hits the $5-$6 range. Best regards, Bernard Levy

To: JMD who wrote (2030)	9/12/1998 8:14:00 PM
From: dougjn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29987

Mike, I'm not certain that I will be able to buy Gstrf in the mid single digits. I'm just certain that it won't run away from me to the upside anytime soon (at least not and stay up). And that there are much better ponies to bet on for a while. And that there is an excellent CHANCE that the single digit opportunity will arise. But of course even those limited certainties could be wrong. Stocks rarely V back after disasters. They may dead cat bounce but it almost never lasts. If it does, it's only because the initially perceived problems turn out to be no big or lasting deal. There is no chance of that here. Even if nothing more bad develops, most investors think they probably will for quite some time after a stock collapse. Issues of overreaction, while perhaps good for the dead cat, never take hold for some time, without lots of good news. There is a lot of potential for bad news here. I agree with you that Loral is the much better bet, but because Gstrf makes up a heavy percentage of its value, and because Loral managed the G* disaster, I wouldn't call it such a good bet right now. Unlike G* however, there is the chance of good, as well as bad, news for Loral not too far into the future. Nothing is certain in the market. It's all a matter of the odds. That's how I see them right now. Doesn't mean my expected price five years from now has changed much. Does mean may sense of the risk of it doing less well has gone up a lot. Not as much as the market's sense, but a lot. Doug