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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (52448)	9/13/1998 3:14:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

Concur on all counts. I wasn't implying that 1040 would hold, only that the market was trying to grow legs. Since the options ratio favors a higher close on Friday, I would expect the downturn to possibly be delayed until the week after this one, however my indicators show weakness after the 16th. Your comment about Oil being up due to devaluation, I definitely concur as the Philly Gold/Silver index confirms. It spiked up last week as some tried to hedge currency. This week will be tricky. I actually prefer to play the waves downward as it is much safer in this environment. However with this temporary upward bias, I may have to play the calls instead. It will be interesting to see if they try to take us up fast so they can retrieve their calls cheaply then let the fall happen as it wants. Even they may not have enough capital to hold this thing up for a couple extra days. Of course CNBC may just put a positive spin on whatever G-span says this week no matter what he really says. <g> Something else I just noticed tonight that I found curious. Many issues tested their 200 DMAs at least intra day. However, DELL, CTXS and many others did not. Even they dipped last October so apparently the fear factor has not even come close yet. We have not found the bottom yet on this down turn and I am beginning to think it will not wait for October this time. 2 weeks? Good Luck with your plays this week. Lee

To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (52448)	9/13/1998 11:14:00 AM
From: SJS	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

Steve, <<The XOI/OIX.X - BigOil sector appears to be near the top of its DownTrend channel. I'm assuming that much of their recent apparent strength is a result of: USD devaluation; its effects on CL98Z - CrudeOil Futures; and, the sector's over-sold state.>> Could you explain the first sentence a little more? Does this mean we've hit the bottom on oil, and we go up slowly from here, or....something else? Your USD devaluation is part of it. As well the market likes: 1) OPEC recent compliance % and positive psychology it may be having 2) Recent API oil usage report from last week. 3) Global Weather incidents (Hurricanes, etc) 4) Political/Economic turmoil in certain oil producing country

To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (52448)	9/13/1998 11:19:00 AM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

Hi MG .. Re the drop in the value of the dollar. When the price of gold, oil, food, imports and other world currencies all go up at the same time I think that's called inflation. This inflation is being caused by the lowering of demand to hold the dollar as a safe means of wealth storage. Funny how no one has said the "I" word yet. Never did figure out that one item to compare all others against. I think that I'm going to start talking about the dudap as a mythical currency. Looks like the good Dr. was right about the yen. They have opted for simply running the presses. Now .. that would cause the value of the yen to go down against the dudap. At the same time the dollar continues down against the dudap. Net result is that the yen looks to have stabilized to the folks in the US. Now then, while the yen and dollar are falling at the same time, the liquidity will have to go somewhere. To my thinking this leaves Europe as the winner of the next round. Probably the Euro will have been timed to have a very good start. Perhaps my Oppenheimer metal mining fund will turn to gold now. Gersh