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To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (18706)	9/13/1998 1:08:00 PM
From: Chas.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116753

Bobby Yellin...... With the worsening world economic developments, how can gold go anywhere but up!! As the Dow declines and world problems continue and deepen......won't money move to gold, silver, with the Middle east tightening up is oil also heading back up.....???? When people get nervous about their savings, investments, don't they always look for the old traditional places to put their money in for safe keeping?...mattresses, cookie jars.....gold.....silver.....kruggerands...etc

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (18706)	9/13/1998 1:14:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116753

>> what do you think is more important short and long term for gold? japan stalemate, latin america contagion,clinton,etc?>> Clinton stalemate, japan contagion and latin america etc :)

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (18706)	9/13/1998 2:05:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Respond to of 116753

Bonds Seen Rising as Investors Seek Fixed-Income on Dim Outlook for Stocks Japanese Bonds Seen Rising on Dim Outlook for Stocks (Repeat) (Repeats to change date from Friday.) Tokyo, Sept. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese bonds are likely to rise this week as investors could seek fixed-income securities as a haven from the dim outlook for global stocks. ''What can we buy in Japan?'' said Hideo Takemura, a general manager at Partners Asset Management Co., which oversees 1.2 trillion yen ($9.13 billion) in assets. ''The only option to pick is bonds, given global deflation.'' Japan's benchmark stock index sank below 14,000 for only the second time in 12 years following another plunge on Wall Street, sharpening expectations the Japanese economy will come under pressure of deflation. Last week, the benchmark No. 182 Japanese government bond, maturing in September 2005, rose 1,083 yen per 50,000 yen in face value, lowering its yield 29 basis points to 0.78 percent. Bond futures for December delivery rose 2.63 to 137.81. ''The fall in U.S. equities and concerns that problems in Latin American markets will have negative impact on U.S. and European economies is behind the gains in global bond markets,'' said Naomi Hasegawa, a senior economist at Tokyo-Mitsubishi Securities Co. Helping to fuel optimism is expectations the Bank of Japan will provide ample funds to the money market, after the central bank cut interest rates Wednesday. The bank lowered its target rate for overnight lending between banks, equivalent to the U.S. federal funds rate, to 0.25 percent from slightly below 0.5 percent. ''The BOJ's move clearly signals the situation is urgent, that Japan's banks are in peril. That means the super-low interest rate era will be stretched even further, leaving long- term bonds as the only option,'' said Xinyi Lu, a strategist at Paribas Capital Markets Ltd. In addition, the central bank suggested further options to cut interest rates. ''We have not used all of our available policy options'' said Bank of Japan Gov. Masaru Hayami on Friday. An economic growth report Friday reaffirmed the economy's poor health. The economy shrank more-than-expected 0.8 percent in the April-June period from the previous quarter, a record third- straight quarterly contraction, according to the Economic Planning Agency. ''Japan is probably going through its darkest moment,'' said Taichi Sakaiya, the chief of the EPA. He said it'll be hard for the economy to achieve even zero growth for the year. Yet, bonds could be hurt if the Liberal Democratic Party and opposition parties reach a compromise and manage to pass legislation to help the banking system, although they are still at odds, after talks late Friday failed to resolve their differences. LDP Secretary General Yoshiro Mori said the party would not make concessions just to pass the bills before a meeting between Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi and U.S. President Bill Clinton on Sept. 22. Opposition parties rejected the latest ruling party compromise, the Nihon Keizai newspaper said in its Sunday edition. ''Approval of the banking bills is the precursor for economic recovery,'' said Michael Lockrow, a senior economist at Thomson Global Markets. Corporate Bonds Hino Motors Ltd., a truck builder, may sell 30 billion yen of bonds as early as next Wednesday, underwriters said. Hino Motors may select DKB Securities Co. to manage the sale of five billion yen in three-year bonds, Fuji Securities Co. to manage the sale of another five billion yen in three-year bonds, Nikko Securities Co. to manage 15 billion yen in four-year bonds and Sakura Securities Co. to manage the sale of five billion yen in four-year bonds. Tokyu Corp., a commuter rail line operator, may sell 30 billion yen of bonds as early as next Wednesday, underwriters said. Tokyu may select Tokyo-Mitsubishi Securities Co. to manage the sale of 10 billion yen in five-year bonds, IBJ Securities Co. the sale of 10 billion yen in seven-year bonds and Nomura Securities Co. the sale of 10 billion yen in 10-year bonds.

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (18706)	9/13/1998 2:06:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Respond to of 116753

Japanese Stocks Seen Falling on Earnings Cuts, Miserable GPD Report Japanese Stocks Seen Falling on Earnings Cuts, GDP (Repeat) (Changes date, updates Nikkei futures in Singapore at end.) Tokyo, Sept. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks may fall this week as ugly GDP figures, cuts in earnings forecasts and likely weakness in global markets -- especially the U.S. -- all threaten pull the benchmark Nikkei to 12-year lows. Toshiba Ltd., the world's biggest maker of notebook PCs and Komatsu Co., Japan's largest maker of construction equipment, may pace an across-the-board fall. ''Japan is at the epicenter of a global earthquake,'' said Scott McGlashan, director and head of Far Eastern investment at Perpetual Plc near London, which handles $800 million in Japanese equities. ''Terrible GDP, major revisions down to corporate earnings and continuing impasse on bank rescue would drive the market to new lows, even if the rest of the world looked hunky- dory.'' The benchmark Nikkei Stock Average fell 0.9 percent to 13,916.98 this week, only the second time in 12 years it has fallen below 14,000. It will likely trade between 13,500 and 14,500 this week, said Kiyoshi Tsugawa, chairman of Lehman Brothers Japan Inc. Japan's economy shrank for a record third-straight quarter, contracting 0.8 percent in the April-June period from the previous quarter and 3.3 percent on an annualized basis, as Japan dug its heels into its worst recession in more than 50 years. ''I don't think the government is aware the economy is contracting as violently as it is -- it's screaming for domestic restructuring,'' said Andrew Aiken, director of equity derivatives trading at Credit Suisse First Boston in London. ''There's a very good chance that the market does trade significantly lower on the back of this.'' More Selling The market may also be pulled down if companies sell off cross-shareholdings -- especially of financial issues -- in preparation for the end of the fiscal half year on Sept 30. ''A lot of Japanese companies will sell their portfolios to book profits by the end of September,'' said Lehman's Tsugawa. ''And if even if there is no significant profit to be realized, they still may sell to help their cash flow.'' And if the parliamentary gridlock between the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the main opposition parties on key financial legislation shows no signs of breakthrough, banks from the strong -- such as Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd. -- to the weak -- such as Long-Term Credit Bank of Japan Ltd. -- will fall further, investors said. Toshiba and Komatsu are only the latest casualties of Japan's sluggish economy. Toshiba said it'll post a group net loss of 25 billion yen for the half year ending in September and cut its forecast for the full year to zero. Moody's Investors Service cut Komatsu's long-term and short- term debt ratings after Friday's market close, citing concern about the sluggish domestic construction industry and rising debt at Japan's biggest maker of construction machinery. Wall Street's moves will likely influence Tokyo as well -- especially top exporters and high-tech issues. ''The big unknown from here on is whether or not Wall Street can stop sliding,'' said Pelham Smithers, strategist at ING Baring Securities (Japan) Ltd. ''If Wall Street continues to slide then Japan will as well.'' Friday's Trading On Friday, the Nikkei fell below 14,000 for only the second time in 12 years as another plunge on Wall Street and gloomy earnings forecasts at Toshiba Corp. compounded anxiety over the nation's fragile economy. Toyota Motor Corp., Sony Corp. and Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd. paced an across-the-board fall. ''It's really concern about a global stock market crash -- nothing less than that,'' said Stephen Bronte, managing partner at Stephen Bronte partners, a Japanese equities hedge fund in Tiburon, California. ''Tokyo on its own would be falling at this stage because corporate earnings are falling off a cliff.'' The benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index fell 749.05 points, or 5.11 percent, to 13,916.98, its biggest one-day plunge since Dec. 19, 1997. The broader Topix index of all shares on the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange slid 38.43 points, or 3.46 percent, to 1071.48. Today's ''special quotation'' or S.Q. quarterly settlement for September Nikkei 225 index futures and options also fueled the fall as brokers jockeyed to bring the benchmark in line with their positions and sold off after the strike price was set. September Nikkei 225 index futures and options settled at 14,307.19. ''Get out the Dramamine (a motion sickness medication),'' said Paul Migliorato, senior manager in Jardine Fleming Securities (Asia) Ltd.'s institutional sales department. ''There is no shortage of reasons for queasiness: today's quarterly S.Q. rites, and the market's tendency to hibernate after the 'event,' the overnight carnage in major Western markets and continued rumors of approaching bankruptcies.'' An estimated 1.25 billion shares traded, triple the full-day six-month daily average of 417 million shares, in large part because of S.Q. activity. That's the highest volume since March 8, 1996. Losers outpaced winners five to one on the first section. Nikkei 225 index futures for December delivery traded in Osaka fell 760 points to 13,720; in Singapore they fell 690 points to 13,800. bloomberg.com

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (18706)	9/13/1998 2:10:00 PM
From: John Barendrecht	Respond to of 116753

Importance of clinton ... heard on CBC - this is only Clinton we're talking about, its not like it was Greenspan.

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (18706)	9/13/1998 2:13:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116753

If true could mean another buying opportunity in Gold next week... Sen. Hatch Says Clinton Can Save His Presidency 01:23 p.m Sep 13, 1998 Eastern WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A leading Senate Republican had a ''very hard-hitting'' conversation with President Clinton Sunday, and later said Clinton may be able to save his presidency with more contrition and sincerity. Judiciary Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch of Utah said he called the president on his car phone and had a ''very good exchange.'' ''We had a very interesting conversation,'' Hatch told the CBS News program ''Face the Nation.'' He declined to discuss specifics of their talk, nor did he say how long it lasted. ''Basically it was a very hard-hitting, very good exchange of what I feel and what he feels,'' Hatch said. Hatch said the collective evidence in Kenneth Starr's report to Congress alleging possible grounds for impeachment ''does not help the president.'' However, he said if Clinton would drop his legalistic defense to perjury and other allegations and publicly express more contrition and humility then his presidency might survive. ''If he'll quit splitting legal hairs. If he'll quit playing this legal game and start being what he is, a basically warm winning person who the American people have liked from the beginning... and just acknowledge, 'Yeah, I've done some really bad things, I've really screwed up here,' My gosh, I think the president could get through this. But he's starting to lose,'' Hatch said. Hatch predicted Clinton would never be indicted on the charges in the Starr report and he should not consider resignation until he sees what develops in the House of Representatives on the issue of impeachment. ''There are many good things about this president,'' Hatch said. ''We ought to look for the good, but we can't ignore the bad and there are a lot of bad things here.'' Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited.

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (18706)	9/13/1998 2:15:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Respond to of 116753

Brazil seen pressed to churn out more fiscal steps 12:29 p.m. Sep 13, 1998 Eastern By Noriko Yamaguchi SAO PAULO, Sept 13 (Reuters) - Brazil is pressed to churn out additional fiscal measures this week after economists said the government's dire efforts to stem a wave of capital flight from Latin America's biggest economy were far from enough. Brazil, desperate to avert a devaluation of its currency, the real, with general elections just three weeks away, made every effort last week to stop dollars flying out of the country and relieve pressure on the exchange rate. The government jacked up interest rates to nearly 50 percent in a bid to keep the U.S. currency inside the country after foreign investors stampeded out of Brazil's financial markets. The drastic move, which came two days after the government announced $3.42 billion in emergency spending cuts to tackle its towering fiscal deficit, won support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF promised to loan money to Brazil and other Latin American economies if necessary. But queasy investors still felt unsettled about the effects of the government cure. While news of the IMF shield sent local stock prices soaring 13.4 percent on Friday, more than $1 billion was still estimated to have fled Brazil, after currency markets lost an average $1.5 billion per day so far in September. ''The key now is to restore confidence in Brazil,'' said Constantin Jancso, economist at MCM Consultants. ''The high interest rates will not be sustainable in the long run ... Brazil has to do its biggest homework, which is to tackle its fiscal deficit and carry out structural reforms.'' Brazil's nominal budget deficit -- a key indicator of its fiscal health -- stood unsustainably high at 7.27 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) between January and June. The rate hike was seen aggravating the gaping figures. ''The government had added 16.8 billion reais ($14.3 billion) in interest payments to its public debt until the end of the year,'' economist Raul Velloso told Estado de Sao Paulo newspaper on Sunday. ''Fiscal adjustment measures must be enacted more rapidly to keep the Real Plan alive.'' The four-year old economic plan, which ended years of hyper-inflation, is the brain child of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, now widely seen to be headed for re-election on October 4. To keep the plan alive, local newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo speculated on Sunday the government was pondering additional spending cuts worth seven billion reais ($5.9 billion) in case the dollar haemorrhage does not stop. Central Bank president Gustavo Franco also hinted at more cuts. ''A great challenge exists, which is to tackle the fiscal deficit,'' he said in an interview published in Sunday's O Globo newspaper when asked if there could be other measures. ''The Central Bank will complete its mission. Our role is to defend the currency, and we will do what is needed to do that,'' Franco said, when asked if there was more room for higher interest rates. Dollar outflows were sure to be watched closely again this week. Brazil's foreign currency reserves, which are the country's main defence against a speculative attack on the real, was down to $52 billion -- a nine-month low -- last week from about $70 billion in the beginning of August. Central Bank's Franco said nearly $1.5 billion has entered the country in September so far amid all the turmoil, as foreign investors settled their acquisition deals. Brazil is also betting on three privatisation auctions this week. A state-owned bank Banco do Estado de Minas Gerais (Bemge) is slated to go under the hammer on Monday, followed by power utility Gerasul on Tuesday and electricity distributor Bandeirante on Thursday. If all goes well, state governments would add a minimum of $2 billion to the reserves. ''Anything that implies a plus, not a minus, to reserves right now is a positive,'' said Walter Stoeppelwerth, economist at Robert Flemings in Brazil. ''If they can cobble together $2 billion the market should be relieved, unless it's still losing $2 billion a day.'' Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited.

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (18706)	9/13/1998 2:17:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Respond to of 116753

ets.... IMF Short Of Cash As World Financial Problems Mount 12:15 p.m. Sep 13, 1998 Eastern By Janet Guttsman WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund said its reserves were running low after big rescue deals in Asia and Russia, leaving it with as little as $5 billion to cope with mushrooming problems elsewhere. First Deputy Managing Director Stanley Fischer told a news conference about the IMF's annual report, released Sunday, that the fund had just $5 billion to $9 billion available to lend, taking account of the need to let member countries draw on the cash they were depositing with the lending institution. But he said the IMF was nevertheless ready to do what it could to help Latin America, where countries have jacked up interest rates to protect currencies and where markets are reeling from the knock-on effect of Russia's financial woes. Fischer called on the United States and other countries to come up quickly with extra cash. ''The situation in the global economy unfortunately, very regrettably, is becoming extremely difficult and the resources now available are limited in ways that are unhelpful to increasing confidence in the international system,'' he said. But selling some of the IMF's 104 million ounces of gold reserves was not the answer, Fischer said. ''We are not going to operate in a way which puts our shareholders' resources at risk,'' he said. ''We need to hold those gold reserves as the ultimate assurance to our members of the value of their claims on this institution.'' The IMF's annual report said countries borrowed $25.6 billion from the fund in the financial year to April 30, nearly four times as much as in 1996/97. IMF liquidity ratios have fallen sharply. ''As you can see today, the demands on the fund's resources are not declining right now,'' Fischer said. ''The fund's role in Latin America is also at issue.'' The IMF said Friday it was ready to put together rescue packages for Latin American countries. But Fischer said the fund had not received a request for help. The IMF, set up to rebuild the world financial system after World War Two, receives money from member states in the form of quotas -- effectively subscriptions to the institution. Rich countries also contribute to a special $23 billion emergency fund, the General Arrangements to Borrow, which was used in July for the first time in almost 20 years to provide part of a big loan to Russia. Fischer declined to speculate on what would happen if the U.S. Congress did not approve a Clinton administration request for $18 billion of extra cash, some of it to increase the quotas and some to create a new emergency fund, the New Arrangements to Borrow. But he made clear that failure to approve the money could have a bearing on Washington's role in the institution. The United States is the IMF's biggest shareholder and its 18 percent of the votes gives it veto power over major decisions. ''There are decisions of enormous importance being made now about the role the United States plans to take in a global economic system that it ... created in 1945,'' he said. ''It is not a small decision to decide to abandon that system and I think we should not at this stage be crossing hypothetical bridges as to how the world would look if the U.S. Congress decides not to support the IMF.'' Fischer said he still hoped Congress would approve the extra cash, which would unlock payments from other states. ''There are countries out there who need assistance,'' he said. ''The system needs a functioning IMF, able to provide assistance to members who are doing the right thing and who, for reasons not under their control, are facing great difficulties.'' Deputy finance ministers from rich industrialized countries are meeting in London Monday to discuss Russia's problems and work out what can be done there and elsewhere. Some observers expect ministers to float the idea of a fund which could be disbursed to help countries combat speculative attacks on global markets. It could be unveiled at the annual IMF conference in October. Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited.

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (18706)	9/13/1998 2:18:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116753

more ets.,.... Israel, Palestinians Deadlocked 5 Years After Pact 01:23 p.m Sep 13, 1998 Eastern By Howard Goller JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Israelis and Palestinians fought on the street and bickered at the peace table Sunday, the fifth anniversary of the Oslo accords they sealed with a historic handshake on the White House lawn. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu answered a threat of suicide bombings from the Islamic militant group Hamas with a threat of his own, vowing to meet ''massive terrorist attacks'' with an iron fist. ''Israel will not tolerate a strike against its citizens and will act with an iron fist against the murderous organizations,'' a government statement quoted Netanyahu as telling a cabinet meeting. Clashes erupted for the third day since Israel killed two top Hamas militants, brothers Imad and Adel Awadallah who were suspected of plotting attacks against Israel. Hamas, opposed to peace with Israel, has vowed to avenge the killings. In the West Bank, Israeli troops fired rubber-coated bullets to disperse Palestinian stone-throwers near the Jewish settlement of Tekoa, injuring five youngsters, Palestinians said. Near Bethlehem, Jesus's traditional birthplace, Palestinians raised a coffin covered in black. Written on it in Arabic and Hebrew were the words ''Oslo is dead,'' a reference to the Norwegian capital where the 1993 interim peace deal was forged. About 150 Palestinians took part in the protest, burning Israeli and U.S. flags. In Egypt, U.S. Middle East troubleshooter Dennis Ross lamented the stalemate five years after Palestinian President Yasser Arafat shook hands with then-Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin at a sunny ceremony in Washington. ''I am standing here before you on the fifth anniversary of the signing,'' Ross told reporters after meeting Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak on his renewed efforts to break the deadlock. ''Clearly we are not where we had hoped to be,'' Ross said. ''There still are many issues that have to be worked on,'' he added ahead of his return to Israel Sunday for a meeting between Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat and Israeli cabinet secretary Danny Naveh. Netanyahu's communications chief David Bar-Illan said the sides would discuss outstanding issues from previous peace deals such as a Gaza airport and safe passage for Palestinians between the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The United States has proposed that Israel hand over another 13 percent of the West Bank to the Palestinians in exchange for measures to curb Islamic militants. Arafat accepts it; Netanyahu is resisting, making security demands. Netanyahu, elected six months after the assassination of Rabin by a right-wing Jew opposed to Arab-Israeli peace moves in November 1995, plunged talks into crisis nearly 19 months ago when he broke ground on a Jewish settlement. Since then talks have remained stuck over the terms of a further Israeli transfer of West Bank land and charges of Palestinian Authority laxity in dealing with Islamic militants whose suicide bombers have killed dozens of Israelis. An indefinite Israeli closure of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, imposed after the killings of the Awadallah brothers, remained in effect. Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited.