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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gdichaz who wrote (3000)	9/13/1998 10:29:00 PM
From: Frank A. Coluccio	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

gdichaz, Thanks, but if you take the four or five top players in this sector, it probably matters little who is in the lead for the moment. Those who were leapfrogging one another will continue to, and soon be joined by others who will leapfrog. It's going to be the same way in the router field and elsewhere where incremental leaps are defined in software and some subtle adaptations of physics. First, there were 2 lambdas, then 4 (voila, now we put a D in front of WDM), and then 8, 16, 32, 40 <?>, 64, 90 <?>, then 128, etc., with each increment being achieved by an alternate player. Keeping score is almost academic, except for the players' (in)abilities to be compliant with carriers bid requirements in a timely manner. Some players will differentiate themselves soon by their ability to introduce more sophisticated add-drop and routing capabilities at discrete lambdas, and then we will be in a better position to determine who is in the lead from a technical and engineering perspective, and who lags. For the moment, though, where the technology is concerned, its pick a leader of the day. The financials..? That's another story. What is more important once you reach this stratum of the sector is institutional merit and credibility, the fundamentals, the things that come back to influence market cap, and hopefully avoiding the kinds of fiascoes that have surrounded CIEN of late. From my observations, they are top tier, top notch technologically, right up there with the best of them. But they have some damage control to deal with now, from an image and attractiveness standpoint, IMHO. Regards, Frank C.