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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GVTucker who wrote (64702)	9/14/1998 8:10:00 AM
From: MR. PANAMA (I am a PLAYER)	Respond to of 186894

TOMMY........YEEEEEEEEOOOOOOOOOOWWWWWWWWWW....GRIM Bullish 3 weeks of each month and Bearish during Tommy's Period hahahahaah hahahaha

To: GVTucker who wrote (64702)	9/14/1998 8:10:00 AM
From: Joseph Pareti	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

> The place where (TK) erred was the revenue line. I kind of agree. For example in the last call (August 20 or so) he talked 33% ASP DECLINE., using $330 for the high-end chips, $175 for the mid-range and $ 30 for the low end. Now Intel is essentially recovering the revenue shortfall of 2qCY1998 (10% off then, 10% more according to the pre-announcement). This means that Intel guidance at the end of CY1997 holds. DId they say anything about ASP then ? Can anybody work backwards from the revenue stream to the ASP for high-end, mid-range and low end to set against TK's call ?

To: GVTucker who wrote (64702)	9/14/1998 8:11:00 AM
From: MR. PANAMA (I am a PLAYER)	Respond to of 186894

Tommy's getting a Big Xmas Card frum me......does it get any better than this....GRIM CHICK MAGNET...Kurlack Expert

To: GVTucker who wrote (64702)	9/14/1998 11:47:00 AM
From: Tony Viola	Respond to of 186894

GV, Re: "This is incorrect. Kurlak's model for 3Q has always assumed 51% GM. The place where he erred was the revenue line." He has been predicting lower GM's, I had concluded a month ago, if not by admission, then by implication. The words he uttered on August 14th are below. He didn't mention lower GM percentages explicitly, but implied it. : ''Even a big success (in servers) may not restore Intel's ASP (average selling price) or its previously above-average growth,'' Kurlak wrote in his report to investors today. The Merrill analyst lowered his rating on the shares to long- term ''neutral'' from long-term ''accumulate.'' He also blew it WRT Intel fixing the low end problem: "Says that though there is a shortage of low-end chips, this lower margin business does not compensate for the glut of high-end chips still in the channel." The following Monday, Intel announced Celeron 300A and 333, which now sound like they are ramping up extremely well and fixing the 'shortage of low end chips problem.' Kurlak, in his Modus operandi, reminds me of Dick Whittington, formerly of Soundview. Neither seems, or seemed, to have any interest in checking out the bricks and mortar of Silicon Valley in person. Rather, they try/tried to make "gut feel" calls while sitting in a leather chair in New York or Connecticut. This MO finally ruined Whittington. IMO, Kurlak's gut feel, no research MO, will some day get him also. Tony

To: GVTucker who wrote (64702)	9/14/1998 12:28:00 PM
From: Paul Engel	Respond to of 186894

GVTucker - Re: "This is incorrect. Kurlak's model for 3Q has always assumed 51% GM. The place where he erred was the revenue line. " Kurlak erred? Say it ain't so, GVTucker ! The master Know-It-All made another incorrect call. Paul

To: GVTucker who wrote (64702)	9/15/1998 1:17:00 PM
From: Doug M.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

GVTucker, Kurlak erred on the revenue line and consequently he erred on the net income line. His estimate for Q3 was 69 cents. It now looks like Intel will earn a minimum of about 79 cents per share. My guess is that he will be off a minimum of 14.4% on the net income side. This is pathetic, it translates to roughly a $178,000,000 ERROR in net income. This is a lot of money. Just think what AMD could do with these types of profits! Remember, this is just the figure that Kurlak was off the mark! Net income should be about $1,400,000,000. Why did I say he will be off a minimum of 14.4%? Because Intel has only preannounced four quarters during the last six years. Two positive, two negative. In each of the two positive preannouncements (Q492 and Q396), the actual results came in well above the preannounced guidance. One of the main reasons for this was because Intel was entering the "sweet spot" of MPU product cycle. Therefore, it looks like the benefits of the .25 micron technology are really kicking in! Kurlack should get another job before he completely and totally embarrasses himself beyond belief!